A new way of governing
Coalition politics may be the solution to balance SA’s political, regional, societal diversity
THIS year’s national and provincial elections may, for the first time, herald in coalitions at national and provincial levels. In 2016 South Africa entered a new post-apartheid era of coalition politics at local government level.
The shock of the corruption, mismanagement and manipulation of public institutions under former president Jacob Zuma’s administration has fragmented the tripartite alliance. New breakaways have been formed off the ANC-SACP-Cosatu alliance, creating new opposition parties, but older established opposition parties were also reinvigorated by the decline of the ANC under Zuma.
Voters have two votes – one for national gavernemnt and the other for provincial government. In the past ANC supporters have voted for the ANC to govern both at national and provincial level.
However, this year we may see ANC supporters splitting their national and provincial vote. Some ANC members may vote for the ANC at provincial level, but vote for other parties at national level, or the other way around. This election therefore may change the face of South Africa’s politics forever.
Some ANC supporters – still not convinced about whether the ANC as a party has the ability to renew, but who believe in (current President Cyril) Ramaphosa, may vote for Ramaphosa at national level, and for an opposition party at provincial level. Ramaphosa’s personal popularity is higher than that of the ANC.
It appears that some Zuma allies on the other hand are encouraging ANC members to vote for the ANC at provincial level – to bring in Zuma allied provincial Cabinets; but vote for other parties at national level, which would bring down the ANC’s national vote.
Furthermore, there are now more new provincial parties, with exclusively regional footprints, rather than national ones.
But many new parties, set up as national parties, may not impact at national level, but will gather voters at provincial level.
If ANC voters vote for Ramaphosa in big numbers at national level, but for other parties at provincial level, the ANC will secure a national majority, which would strengthen the hand of Ramaphosa to introduce radical reforms of the ANC and government.
In some provinces – such as the Eastern Cape, Northern Cape or Free State – the ANC would in a scenario where many of its supporters vote for it at national level, but for other parties at provincial level, at provincial level have majorities of fewer than 50%, just as in some cities in the 2016 local government elections.
The ANC would then be forced in such provinces of reduced majorities to form coalitions with opposition parties.
With the same token, opposition parties could, in such a scenario, like in Johannesburg and Tshwane, following the 2016 local government elections form governing coalitions which exclude the ANC.
If ANC members however, follow a different scenario and vote for the ANC at provincial level, but for other parties at national level, it could bring the ANC’s national majority down to between fewer than 60% and even dropping to below 50%.
Some pro-Zuma, but anti-Ramaphosa supporters are apparently contemplating voting for the ANC at provincial level, but not at national level.
Pro-Zuma ANC members contemplating such a tactic, whereby they vote for the ANC at provincial level, but for other parties at the national level, presumably therefore want to turn the national elections into a referendum for Ramaphosa’s policies.
If the ANC drops votes at national level, but still wins with a majority that falls under 50%, it would mean it will then have to put together a coalition with other political parties to run the national government.
If the ANC majority at national level falls closer to 45%, it would need smaller parties, or at the least a major opposition party as a coalition partner; or it may even allow the opposition parties to form a national coalition, forcing the ANC into opposition.
Worse, if opposition parties form their own national governing coalition and force the ANC to become the official national opposition, pro-Zuma groups could then presumably call for a special national conference of the ANC, and would then try to vote Ramaphosa out as party leader.
Many of the new smaller parties that have suddenly sprung up may become power brokers at provincial and national levels – while the ANC may need them to secure provincial and national governments.
The EFF could also become a power-broker in the scenario where the ANC receives a national majority of closer to 45% and then need to get into a coalition with a larger party. Ramaphosa will then have to choose between the EFF or the DA as the national coalition partner.
Nevertheless, South Africa is now firmly entering the era of coalitions, if not at this election, most certainly at the next.
Coalition politics are new, and would predictably create anxiety, however, coalition politics may be the best solution to balance South Africa’s political, regional and societal diversity.
WILLIAM GUMEDE