What would happen if asteroid due to skim past Earth were to actually hit?
On October 12, a 10-30 metre asteroid is set to make a 'close' flyby of Earth. The asteroid, named 2012 TC4, will pass 6,800 kilometres from Earth for the first time since it went out of range in 2012. Although NASA researchers are certain that it will not come any closer than this, if the asteroid did hit Earth, it could lead to a much more devastating level of impact than the 18-metre asteroid that hit the city of Chelyabinsk in Russia in 2013. That particular blast injured about 1,500 people, and damaged over 7,000 buildings, and experts now say 2012 TC4 is 'something to keep an eye on.'
Researchers are still uncertain of the asteroid's composition, which makes it difficult to predict what the effects of an impact on Earth would be. A spokesperson for NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory said: "2012 TC4 was observed only briefly when it was discovered before it was too faint to see. The ongoing observation campaign and the data we collect during this flyby will provide more direct information on mineralogical composition, structure, size. Physical properties of an asteroid and its velocity relative to the Earth will influence the effects on an impact."
NASA is also using the opportunity to test its network of observatories for its planetary defense system system, in the event an asteroid did actually hit Earth.
Dr. Michael Kelley, a scientist working on the NASA TC4 observation campaign, said: "Scientists have always appreciated knowing when an asteroid will make a close approach to and safely pass the Earth because they can make preparations to collect data to characterize and learn as much as possible about it. This time we are adding in another layer of effort, using this asteroid flyby to test the worldwide asteroid detection and tracking network, assessing our capability to work together in response to finding a potential real asteroid threat."
NASA hopes to use its international network of observatories to recover, track and characterize 2012 TC4.
Dr. Vishnu Reddy, assistant professor at the University of Arizona's Lunar and Planetary Laboratory who is leading the campaign, said: "This is a team effort that involves more than a dozen observatories, universities and labs across the globe so we can collectively learn the strengths and limitations of our near-Earth object observation capabilities. This effort will exercise the entire system, to include the initial and follow-up observations, precise orbit determination, and international communications."