CIER fore­casts 2015 GDP growth of 3.56 per­cent

The China Post - - FRONT PAGE -

Tai­wan’s gross do­mes­tic prod­uct (GDP) is ex­pected to grow 3.56 per­cent from a year ear­lier, the Chung-Hua In­sti­tu­tion for Eco­nomic Re­search (CIER,

), one of Tai­wan’s lead­ing think tanks, said Thurs­day.

The lat­est fore­cast is up­graded from a pre­vi­ous pre­dic­tion of a 3.50 per­cent year-on-year rise, largely in re­flec­tion of higher pri­vate con­sump­tion and pri­vate in­vest­ment, ac­cord­ing to the CIER.

The think tank said that Tai­wan’s pri­vate con­sump­tion for 2015 is ex­pected to grow 3.02 per­cent from a year ear­lier, com- pared with an ear­lier fore­cast of a 2.78 per­cent in­crease, while the coun­try’s pri­vate in­vest­ment could rise 6.02 per­cent for 2015, up from a pre­vi­ous es­ti­mate of 5.59 per­cent.

De­spite the fore­cast up­grade, the CIER pre­dic­tion is still lower than the gov­ern­ment’s fore­cast of a 3.78 per­cent GDP in­crease is­sued in mid-Fe­bru­ary.

The think tank said that as ma­jor cen­tral banks around the world con­tinue to pump funds into the mar­ket, high global liq­uid­ity lev­els are ex­pected to be main­tained, which is ex­pected to give a boost to pri­vate con­sump- tion and in­vest­ment in Tai­wan.

While the CIER has raised its fore­cast for Tai­wan’s pri­vate con­sump­tion and in­vest­ment for 2015, the think tank has low­ered its pre­dic­tion for Tai­wan’s ex­ports af­ter tak­ing dis­ap­point­ing ex­port data for the first quar­ter of this year into ac­count.

In the Jan­uary-March pe­riod, Tai­wan’s ex­ports fell 4.2 per­cent from a year ear­lier to US$70.25 bil­lion due to fall­ing out­bound sales value in chem­i­cal and rub­ber prod­ucts re­sult­ing from a plunge in in­ter­na­tional crude oil prices.

There­fore,

the CIER has

cut its fore­cast for mer­chan­dise and ser­vice ex­ports for 2015 to 6.26 per­cent from an ear­lier fore­cast of a 7.35 per­cent in­crease, while it has also low­ered its pre­dic­tion for mer­chan­dise and ser­vice im­ports to 5.58 per­cent from 6.36 per­cent.

CIER Pres­i­dent Wu Chung-shu ( ) said that the up­grade of Tai­wan’s 2015 GDP growth fore­cast shows that the lo­cal econ­omy re­mains on the road to re­cov­ery. Wu said that the think tank re­mains up­beat about the out­look of the lo­cal in­for­ma­tion and com­mu­ni­ca­tion tech­nol­ogy sec­tor, adding that the sec­tor is ex­pected to con­tinue to serve as a driver of Tai­wan’s eco­nomic growth.

The think tank also said that due to strong global de­mand for mo­bile de­vices, Tai­wanese semi­con­duc­tor mak­ers are ex­pected to in­crease their in­vest­ments.

The CIER said it has low­ered its fore­cast for Tai­wan’s con­sumer price in­dex growth for 2015 to 0.37 per­cent from an ear­lier es­ti­mate of 0.89 per­cent, and has also low­ered its pre­dic­tion for the coun­try’s job­less rate to 3.72 per­cent from 3.90 per­cent.

For 2016, the CIER said, Tai­wan’s econ­omy is ex­pected to grow 3.41 per­cent, rep­re­sent­ing mod­er­ate growth.

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