Eco­nomic in­di­ca­tor sig­nals slow­down


The Na­tional De­vel­op­ment Coun­cil’s (NDC, ) over­all eco­nomic mon­i­tor­ing in­di­ca­tor rose two points to 18 last month, flash­ing yel­low-blue to sig­nal a slow­down.

The coun­cil uses a five-color sys­tem to sig­nal na­tional eco­nomic health. Red warns of over­heat­ing and yel­low-red of slight over­heat­ing. Green, yel­low-blue and blue sig­nal steady growth, slow­down and re­ces­sion, re­spec­tively.

The NDC’s light in­di­ca­tor in April was blue and a slight gain in May took it to yel­low-blue for a slow­down.

The rise in May’s in­di­ca­tor score was due mainly to the pickup in ma­chiner­ies and elec­tri­cal equip­ment im­ports and a re­turn of the light in­di­ca­tor for mon­e­tary ag­gre­gates M1B to green, ac­cord­ing to Wu Minghuei ( ), di­rec­tor of the NDC's Eco­nomic De­vel­op­ment Depart­ment.

Wu said that she sees a grad­ual eco­nomic re­cov­ery for Tai-

wan in the sec­ond half of 2015.

Nine Com­po­nents

The NDC bases its over­all eco­nomic mon­i­tor­ing in­di­ca­tor on nine com­po­nents.

In May, the sub-in­dices for mon­e­tary ag­gre­gates M1B and the im­ports of ma­chiner­ies and elec­tri­cal equip­ment each gained one point to go from yel­low-blue to green.

Mean­while, the in­dices for pro­ducer’s ship­ment for man­u­fac­tur­ing and in­dus­trial pro­duc­tion gained one and lost one point, re­spec­tively, while in­dices for the five other com­po­nents re­mained un­changed, ac­cord­ing to the NDC re­port.

The coun­cil’s over­all score of 18 is cal­cu­lated based on its lead­ing in­dex — a forecast for the next three to six months — and the co­in­ci­dent in­dex, which sig­nals the cur­rent eco­nomic con­di­tions.

In May, the NDC’s trend-ad­justed lead­ing in­dex fell by 0.41 per­cent­age points from April to stand at 98.07, ac­cord­ing to the NDC re­port. The in­dex of co­in­ci­dent in­di­ca­tors stood at 98.54 in May, down by 0.72 per­cent­age points from April.

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