Hous­ing prices to slide through 2015 due to taxes, elec­tion: real es­tate agents

The China Post - - LOCAL - BY ENRU LIN

Ma­jor Tai­wan real­tors yesterday pre­dicted that hous­ing prices will slide in the sec­ond half of the year due to the new con­sol­i­dated hous­ing and land tax and gen­eral elec­tions slated for Jan­uary.

H&B Realty Co. ( ) said the new con­sol­i­dated hous­ing and land tax is likely to raise the tax bur­den on own­ers of mul­ti­ple prop­er­ties and en­cour­age banks to be­come more con­ser­va­tive with loans.

These vari­ables, along with the up­com­ing gen­eral elec­tions, should en­sure that prop­erty prices de­cline through to the end of the year, said Jes­sica Hsu ( ), head re­searcher at H&B Realty Co.

Hsu said

that lower prop­erty prices may cor­re­late to a higher num­ber of units sold in the sec­ond half of the year, com­pared to the first.

There may be an im­prove­ment in trans­ac­tion vol­ume in the sec­ond half of the year, though over­all vol­ume for the year should “still be com­par­a­tively low,” Hsu said.

Chen Bing- chen ( ) , an an­a­lyst at Tai­wan Realty (

), said that his firm does not see trans­ac­tion vol­ume im­prov­ing but in­stead tak­ing a worse hit in the fourth quar­ter.

“The ef­fect of the gen­eral elec­tion will be­come more pro­nounced in this year’s fourth quar­ter — even if the public bet­ter un­der­stood the new prop­erty tax and was more will­ing to en­ter the mar­ket,” Chen said.

Andy Huang (

), re­search man­ager of Yung-Ching Realty Group ( ), pre­dicted that prices per unit may drop be­tween 5 to 10 per­cent­age points within the next three years.

Tai­wan’s dis­ap­point­ing GDP growth in the sec­ond quar­ter has weak­ened in­vestor con­fi­dence and will cause home­buy­ers to be­come more cau­tious. There is lit­tle op­por­tu­nity for hous­ing prices to climb over the next two to three years, ac­cord­ing to Yung-Ching Realty Group.

“At present, con­fi­dence is hurt­ing and the over­all eco­nomic en­vi­ron­ment is rel­a­tively chal­leng­ing,” Huang said.

“While the in­ter­est rate and tax bur­den (for home­buy­ers) have not in­creased, our es­ti­mate is that prop­erty prices will de­cline over­all by 5 to 10 per­cent­age points.”

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