Tsai ahead of Soong, Hung; pulls 20 points ahead of competitors
The first major public opinion poll after People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong ( ), announced that he will run in the presidential election was released yesterday, showing that the support of Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairwoman Tsai Ingwen ( ) reached 42.9 percent, surpassing the sum of the other two parties.
Analysts predicted that Soong, who joined the presidential run last week, has changed the “bluegreen” scenario into a three-way competition, also threatening to split the KMT vote. According to the public opinion poll released by the Cross Strait Policy Association (CSPA), Soong’s support increased to 23.3 percent, while support for Kuomintang (KMT) presidential candidate Hung Hsiu-chu's (
) has fallen to 16.8 percent, her lowest rating since the group released statistics on the 2016 race three months ago.
Experienced poll analyst Wu Chun-cheng ( ), chairman of the Jet-Go Consulting Group Public Relations & Public Affairs (
) pointed out that the main impact to Tsai is that her share of the vote when results are declared might be lower than 50 percent, clouding previously clearer possibilities that her party could obtain a majority in the Legislative Yuan.
Support for the PFP stood at 6.6 percent, a large gap compared to overall support for Soong, and well behind numbers for the DPP and KMT. With regard to party support, though voting for Soong in the presidential election, panblue supporters are more likely to vote for the KMT (24.3 percent). Former DPP chairman Hsu Hsinliang ( ) stated that Soong joining the election will raise voter participation close to 80 percent. Hsu infers that light blue voters will more likely vote for Soong, while deep blue voters might retain support for Hung.
With support surpassing the other candidates, the prediction of Tsai winning the election increased to 67.5 percent. “The main reason why Tsai is in the lead is due to the increasing voter participation among young people,” Hsu surmised. The poll showed that Tsai’s support from voters aged 25-29 is up to 55 percent, giving her an absolute advantage among voters under the age of 40. Soong on the other hand, has the highest support from the age group 45- 54( 34 percent), while Hung’s support is disbursed among various age groups.