Tsai ahead of Soong, Hung; pulls 20 points ahead of com­peti­tors


The first ma­jor public opin­ion poll af­ter Peo­ple First Party (PFP) Chair­man James Soong ( ), an­nounced that he will run in the pres­i­den­tial elec­tion was re­leased yesterday, show­ing that the sup­port of Demo­cratic Pro­gres­sive Party (DPP) Chair­woman Tsai Ing­wen ( ) reached 42.9 per­cent, sur­pass­ing the sum of the other two par­ties.

An­a­lysts pre­dicted that Soong, who joined the pres­i­den­tial run last week, has changed the “blue­green” sce­nario into a three-way com­pe­ti­tion, also threat­en­ing to split the KMT vote. Ac­cord­ing to the public opin­ion poll re­leased by the Cross Strait Pol­icy As­so­ci­a­tion (CSPA), Soong’s sup­port in­creased to 23.3 per­cent, while sup­port for Kuom­intang (KMT) pres­i­den­tial can­di­date Hung Hsiu-chu's (

) has fallen to 16.8 per­cent, her low­est rat­ing since the group re­leased sta­tis­tics on the 2016 race three months ago.

Ex­pe­ri­enced poll an­a­lyst Wu Chun-cheng ( ), chair­man of the Jet-Go Con­sult­ing Group Public Re­la­tions & Public Af­fairs (

) pointed out that the main im­pact to Tsai is that her share of the vote when re­sults are de­clared might be lower than 50 per­cent, cloud­ing pre­vi­ously clearer pos­si­bil­i­ties that her party could ob­tain a ma­jor­ity in the Leg­isla­tive Yuan.

Sup­port for the PFP stood at 6.6 per­cent, a large gap com­pared to over­all sup­port for Soong, and well be­hind num­bers for the DPP and KMT. With re­gard to party sup­port, though vot­ing for Soong in the pres­i­den­tial elec­tion, pan­blue sup­port­ers are more likely to vote for the KMT (24.3 per­cent). For­mer DPP chair­man Hsu Hsin­liang ( ) stated that Soong join­ing the elec­tion will raise voter par­tic­i­pa­tion close to 80 per­cent. Hsu in­fers that light blue vot­ers will more likely vote for Soong, while deep blue vot­ers might re­tain sup­port for Hung.

With sup­port sur­pass­ing the other can­di­dates, the pre­dic­tion of Tsai win­ning the elec­tion in­creased to 67.5 per­cent. “The main rea­son why Tsai is in the lead is due to the in­creas­ing voter par­tic­i­pa­tion among young peo­ple,” Hsu sur­mised. The poll showed that Tsai’s sup­port from vot­ers aged 25-29 is up to 55 per­cent, giv­ing her an ab­so­lute ad­van­tage among vot­ers un­der the age of 40. Soong on the other hand, has the high­est sup­port from the age group 45- 54( 34 per­cent), while Hung’s sup­port is dis­bursed among var­i­ous age groups.

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