Minister claims fourth quarter will see economy start growing
The economy will start climbing up in the fourth quarter and see notable improvement in the first and second quarters of next year, National Development Council (NDC, ) Minister Duh Tyzzjiun ( ) said yesterday amid reports of Taiwan’s gloomy economic outlook.
Government comptroller the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics ( ) on Friday slashed the 2015 GDP forecast to mere 1.56 percent.
The drop in economic growth was mainly the result of export declines, the NDC head said, adding that the worse-than-expected economic recovery seen in Western countries also plays a role.
The economy will decline into the third quarter before it rises again in the fourth quarter, Duh predicted.
The NDC head made the remarks in a media interview while attending a Chinese National Association of Industry and Commerce ( ) luncheon yesterday.
An adjustment in exported product categories is needed in order to improve Taiwan’s export performance, Duh said.
Information and communication technology (ICT) products account for a large portion of Taiwan’s exports. However, new phones’ slow sales have affected exports of chips, parts and components, and processing machine tools, Duh noted.
A high degree of concentration on some export markets, espe- cially China, also has an adverse impact on exports, according to Duh.
Up to 39 percent of Taiwan’s exports go to China, down from 41 percent in the past. The government intends to further diversify Taiwan’s exports in the future, Duh said.
The Cabinet is also in the process of devising short-, mediumand long- term measures, Duh added.
Foreign Orders May Diminish
for the Fourth Month
The Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA, ) is set to release the foreign orders report for July on Thursday.
In the midst of a global slowdown and weakened demand, and given the high amount recorded last July (US$38.18 billion), many expect foreign orders will stumble for the four consecutive month.
Less demand for computers and hand-held devices has contributed to fewer orders for electronics and ICT products. As oil prices fell, Taiwan’s exports also logged negative growth for six months.
On a positive note, as global brands unveil new products and with the approach of the winter shopping season, the MOEA projects foreign orders in the second half of the year will exceed those in the first half.
There are also adverse factors, including emerging economies’ sluggish growth, China’s beefing up local supply chains, intense global competition, and reduced oil and steel prices, the MOEA said.