July economic indicator flashes third blue light this year: NDC
The National Development Council’s (NDC, ) economic monitoring indicator fell two points to an overall score of 14 in July, flashing blue to signify a decline, becoming the third blue indicator this year.
According to the statistics provided yesterday by the Ministry of Finance, last month’s exported goods, industrial production index and business turnover did not perform well, compared with the same period last year.
The NDC uses a five-color spectrum to signal national economic health. Red warns of overheating and yellow-red of slight overheating. Green, yellow-blue and blue signal steady growth, slowdown and decline, respectively.
Domestic demands for electrical equipment parts declined and a gradual conservative attitude among investors were among the factors for the July declines. An upturn would become apparent in the fourth quarter, the council suggested.
The NDC bases its economic monitoring indicator on nine components.
Sub-indices for monetary aggre- gates of M1B and TAIEX average closing prices in July changed from a healthy green to yellow-blue lights, with each losing one point. Other components remain unchanged, though the leading and related indicators show a continual decline.
However, Wu Ming-huei ( ), director of the NDC’s Economic Development Department, stated that both the Global Insight Inc., (GI), the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics ( DGBAS,
) hold an optimistic view for the fourth quarter.
According to Wu, the U.S. and European economies are still ex- panding, though the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was slashed down in mainland China, showing a shrinking economic state, and will become a major influencing factor for Taiwan’s exports.
The new launches of mobile devices in the later half of the year and holiday business in Europe and the U.S. will create a “positive effect” on global exports, Wu stated.
Wage growth will also see a stable increase, as consumer power in Taiwan is still prevalent, Wu said. Investments in the semiconductor industry maintain a two-digit growth as well.