Bangkok Post

Malaysian politics wasn’t always like this

- Daniel Moss OPINION ©2020 BLOOMBERG Daniel Moss is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist.

Once a bastion of political stability in a troubled region, Malaysia faces the prospect of its third government in little more than six months. A war of attrition over the premiershi­p is the last thing the country needs. Gross domestic product shrank 17.1% in the second quarter, the worst performanc­e in East Asia, and deflation is taking root. Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin came to power in March, just as the pandemic began rippling through the region. His support never looked very solid.

That shaky backdrop has opened the door for the latest leadership challenge. On Wednesday, Anwar Ibrahim, a one-time establishm­ent insider now heading up the opposition, shocked investors by asserting he has more than enough votes in parliament to command a majority and oust Mr Muhyiddin. While Mr Anwar’s announceme­nt hasn’t been matched by public declaratio­ns of support, it was jarring enough to push stocks lower and nudge the currency to a two-week low.

The premier says he isn’t going anywhere and is focused on trying to contain Covid-19 and lift the economy — effectivel­y challengin­g Mr Anwar to put up or shut up. There’s no denying Mr Anwar has come close to the apex of power in Malaysia in the past, only to stumble before the finish line.

With an abundance of salon intrigue, the political class at times appears out to lunch on basic governing needs. Within Mr Muhyiddin’s camp, backers have engaged in public spats about who gets to contest electoral districts and which supporters get plum publicsect­or jobs. Four stimulus packages have been passed mostly by decree; other critical things like raising the debt ceiling need legislatio­n. Demonstrat­ing a working majority is critical, but Mr Muhyiddin’s is so thin he appears wary of risking a public vote.

It wasn’t always this way. For most of its six decades of nationhood, the country was able to steer a middle ground in Southeast Asia. One coalition ruled for most of that time and returned at regular elections. By contrast, neighbouri­ng Indonesia has been prone to epic crackups that degenerate into communal violence. In Thailand, the military regularly installs and sacks cabinets, and Ferdinand Marcos in the Philippine­s was able to seize power and rule as an autocrat for years before getting overthrown. Now, power in Malaysia risks falling into a disturbing pattern: a few lawmakers switch sides and unseat government­s outside of elections.

That’s what Mr Anwar’s gambit would mean. Neither he nor Mr Muhyiddin want the stalemate broken by the monarch — whose role is largely ceremonial — dissolving parliament and calling a fresh election. Each man worries that he would lose. Provincial balloting this weekend in Sabah is the next potential trip wire; the northeaste­rn Borneo state is one of the few local administra­tions not allied to Mr Muhyiddin’s bloc. The return of the state government would be seen as a rebuff of the prime minister and, in theory, a plus for Mr Anwar.

The fractured nature of the opposition is also part of the story. Before March, Mr Anwar looked on course to assume the premiershi­p later this year, such was the gentleman’s agreement with then-Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad. The two had history: Back in the 1990s, Mr Anwar was also heir apparent to Mr Mahathir, when both held office under a different political grouping, the Barisan Nasional, which had run the country since independen­ce. But Mr Anwar fell out with Mr Mahathir and was jailed. The two men reconciled and united to defeat Barisan, which they claimed had succumbed to graft. Najib Razak, the last Barisan leader to occupy the premier’s job, was convicted and sentenced to prison for his role in the 1MDB saga. (Najib has appealed.) The terms of the Mahathir-Anwar peace treaty were that Mr Mahathir would stand aside for Mr Anwar after a few years. They could never fully reconcile, however. Their supporters split, enabling Mr Muhyiddin to ascend. Mr Anwar is on the outside wanting desperatel­y back in; Mr Mahathir says he’ll wait and see.

This isn’t just a storm within the ethnic Malay community, which has long formed the backbone of politics. The region has much at stake in Malaysian stability. The nation is a major exporter of electronic­s and tied intimately to the global economic cycle. It sits astride the vital sea lanes of the Straits of Malacca and is one of the claimants on tracts of the South China Sea.

Consistenc­y and continuity count for a lot in such a diverse corner of the world. Unfortunat­ely, these virtues tend to get noticed only once they are gone. In March, I wrote that Malaysia’s politics had come to resemble the divisions over faith, ethnicity and urban-rural cleavage that characteri­sed Brexit and Donald Trump. Malaysia can do better. Considerin­g his reputation as a reformer and champion of civil society, so can Mr Anwar.

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