3.8% growth tipped next year on govt spend­ing

The Nation - - BUSINESS -

THE econ­omy is ex­pected to ex­pand 3.8 per cent next year, boosted by gov­ern­ment spend­ing fol­low­ing rises in pub­lic and state-en­ter­prise in­vest­ment bud­gets, ac­cord­ing to the Min­istry of Fi­nance.

Suwit Ro­jana­vanich, fi­nance spokesman and di­rec­tor­gen­eral at Fis­cal Pol­icy Of­fice, said bud­gets for pub­lic and state-en­ter­prise in­vest­ments will keep ris­ing through­out the 2018 fis­cal year. Thai­land’s an­nounced elec­tion sched­ule helps boost busi­ness con­fi­dence and en­tice more pri­vate in­vest­ment in the coun­try.

The over­all eco­nomic growth range is es­ti­mated at 3.34.3 per cent next year.

Pub­lic in­vest­ment is ex­pected to climb 11.9 per cent and pri­vate in­vest­ment is pro­jected to ad­vance 3.4 per cent.

Pri­vate con­sump­tion is an­tic­i­pated to rise grad­u­ally at 3.4 per cent on the back of ex­pected rise in non-farm house­hold in­come and eas­ing mon­e­tary con­di­tions.

Mean­while, Thai­land’s trad­ing part­ners are ex­pected to see eco­nomic ex­pan­sion at the rates close to last year’s which would likely lead to ex­pan­sion in Thai ex­ports on a grad­ual ba­sis, he said.

Over­all Thai ex­ports of prod­ucts and ser­vices are pro­jected to grow 4 per cent next year while im­ports are ex­pected to rise 7.9 per cent in terms of value. Ex­ports of prod­ucts alone are ex­pected to in­crease 5.7 per cent.

The cur­rent ac­count is ex­pected to have a sur­plus of US$42.4 bil­lion or 8.8 per cent of the na­tion’s gross do­mes­tic prod­uct (GDP) next year fol­low­ing an ex­pected trade sur­plus of $27.2 bil­lion. Head­line in­fla­tion will likely stay at 1.4 per cent in 2018, higher than this year’s es­ti­mated fig­ure on the back of an ex­pected re­cov­ery in do­mes­tic de­mand and higher en­ergy prices, he said. Its es­ti­mated range is 0.9- 1.9 per cent. How­ever, risks to growth ex­ist with close mon­i­tor­ing needed on eco­nomic re­cov­er­ies of Thai­land’s trad­ing part­ners and de­vel­oped coun­tries’ mon­e­tary poli­cies, Suwit said. Thai eco­nomic growth is es­ti­mated at 3.8 per cent this year.

Pri­vate in­vest­ment, par­tic­u­larly in au­to­mo­bile-re­lated ma­chin­ery and tools, is ex­pected to re­cover in the sec­ond half of this year.

Pri­vate con­sump­tion con­tin­ues to in­crease due to likely im­prove­ment in house­hold in­come and tourism. Head­line in­fla­tion is pro­jected at 0.7 per cent fol­low­ing do­mes­ticde­mand re­cov­ery and likely rise in global crude price.

In Septem­ber of this year, pri­vate in­vest­ment marked a re­cov­ery at ac­cel­er­at­ing rate, re­flect­ing from rises of a 11.4 per cent year-on-year in im­ports of cap­i­tal goods in the month and, thus, 8.2 per cent in the third quar­ter.

Pri­vate con­sump­tion im­proved in Septem­ber, re­flect­ing from a 2 per cent rise year-on-year in value added tax (VAT) at con­stant prices, which prompted the third-quar­ter VAT in­crease of 5.9 per cent year-on-year.

Thai ex­ports rose for a sev­enth straight month in Septem­ber, ris­ing 12.2 per cent year-on-year with jew­elry and ac­ces­sories, gold, elec­tron­ics items and rub­ber prod­ucts lead­ing the pack .

In the month, im­ports in­creased 9.7 per cent year-onyear, led by raw ma­te­ri­als and semi-fin­ished ma­te­ri­als, cap­i­tal goods, gold and con­sumer prod­ucts. Septem­ber's trade posted a sur­plus of $3.4 bil­lion.

Agri­cul­tural pro­duc­tion in­dex in­creased 7.0 per cent, mark­ing its ad­vance for an eight straight month in Septem­ber, led by paddy rice, rub­ber and tapi­oca. The num­ber of for­eign tourists to Thai­land ad­vanced 5.7 per cent year-on-year in Septem­ber to 2.56 mil­lion, led by Chi­nese, Kore­ans, Cam­bo­di­ans and In­di­ans.

Newspapers in English

Newspapers from Thailand

© PressReader. All rights reserved.