IN PURSUIT OF NORMALITY!

In 2014 many sectors, ranging from automotives to real estate and from white goods to cement, failed to record the growth performances that they had achieved in previous years and which had become regarded as ‘normal’. Fifteen of the 21 sectors covered by

Capital (Turkey) - - RESEARCH -

LAST year the Turkish economy grew by 4.1 per cent. 2014 has been a year in which indicators have dipped below the norm in many areas. The economy grew by 4.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2014 and had been expected to have grown by between 2.7 per cent and 2.8 per cent in the second quarter. But, according to the third quarter results announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TU K), growth was below expectations at 2.1 per cent.

This undoubtedly has an impact on many basic sectors, from retailing to automotives, white goods and real estate, and growth figures have been well under the “normal” level. For example, the automotive sector, which under normal circumstances grows by between 12 per cent and 15 per cent a year, dipped below this potential in 2014. In construction the growth rate has fallen to half the norm.

We studied the growth performances of sectors as they entered the last month of the year. We identified the sectors that had failed to achieve the average growth rates of the last five years.

15 SECTORS BELOW THE NORM

The list of 15 sectors whose growth rates have fallen the most under the norm over the last year is headed by construction and real estate. Over the last five years, the construction sector grew by an average of around 8 per cent. But it is expected to close 2014 with growth of 3.5 per cent. Yap Endüstri Merkezi Fuarc l k General Manager Burcu Ba er says that the construction sector grew by 3.8 per cent in the first half of 2014: “This year the sector is growing by less than the norm,” he says. Özyurtlar Companies’ Group Board Chair Tamer Özyurt states that this year the growth of the real estate sector has fallen behind that of the Turkish economy as a whole. He notes that, for this reason, 2014 is a lost year for the sector. “In normal times, the real estate sector grows by 15 per cent. Growth will be 3 per cent at most by the end of this year,” says Özyurt. Özyurt says that growth in the real estate sector will not exceed 5 per cent in 2015.

AUTOMOTIVES HAVE ALSO DECLINED

Another of the main sectors in which the production and sales figures have remained below the normal level in 2014 is automotives. Automotive sales declined by 24 per cent in the first seven months of the year and by 21 per cent in the first eight months. Renault Mais Türkiye General Manager brahim Aybar says that under normal circumstances the automotive market grows between 12 per cent and 15 per cent a year, whereas this year the sector has remained well under the norm. “At the end of 2014, we are expecting the sector’s turnover to have declined by at least 19 per cent compared with last year,” he says.

A study conducted by Euler Hermes shows that the Turkish automotive sector is a long way below the norm this year. The study found that in January-August 2014 the Turkish automotive market contracted by 20.8 per cent and ranked first in Europe as the market that shrank the most.

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One of the markets that have fallen significantly below growth trends this year is the white goods sector and technology supermarkets. The level of growth of technology supermarkets, which had recently been 40 per cent, has fallen to 30 per cent as a result of the ban on

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