Intimate politics of Chinese-US competition
The latest developments in our region and the passes extending to the AsiaPacific region stem from the positioning of the global economy-politics’ ambitious countries toward 2050 to 2100. It is expected that 4.9 billion of the world population estimated to reach 11.2 billion in 2100 will be in Asia and 4.4 billion will live in Africa. China’s One Belt, One Road initiative represents a strategic process toward strengthening the economic and political cooperation between regions that will be home to 83 percent of the world population, and it will provide great initiative to Turkey as a crossroad. Having said that, peace in Middle East and Gulf is necessary for the One Belt, One Road initiative that will extend from east and Southeast Asia to Africa to succeed. China, primarily Iran and Saudi Arabia, should jointly take care of the countries who will play critically important roles for the success of the project. In the meantime, let’s not forget that Qatar is the second most important liquefied natural gas provider of China, following Australia.
The rapprochement between Qatar and Iran that led to the Qatar crisis is critically important for China’s energy supply strategy. It should not be forgotten that Saudi Arabia King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz al-Saud signed 14 deals worth $65 billion in Beijing in March. The U.S., within this frame, must pressure China from both the Pacific and the Middle East and Gulf fronts. China’s advancement for 2050 to 2100 means the U.S. will suffer from a serious loss of ground. Therefore, U.S. President Donald Trump’s Far East contacts starting with South Korea, his unexpected statements on North Korea and the sudden and rapid developments from last weekend regarding the Saudi royal family should all be read and processed together. This process should also be interpreted as a U.S. operation to break the fragile balance between the Saudi Arabia-Iran-Qatar triplet China feels obliged to build.
Likewise, the fact that statements that Chinese were heavily petitioning the historically important Saudi Aramco’s initial public offering (IPO) was not verified also corroborate this conflict. While it was announced that the IPO of 5 percent of the $2 trillion company, thus $100 billion, which would be the biggest IPO in history, will be performed via the Shanghai Stock Exchange, following Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, the announcement that the IPO will be carried out from the New York Stock Exchange shows that Turkey should analyze the difficult situation China is in and follow both the developments in Saudi Arabia and Saudi Arabia-Iran-Qatar relations strained by the U.S. against China from an on-point distance.
PACIFIC PUSH FROM TRUMP
In an environment regarding his death threat, Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri made his resignation public from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, which called on its citizens in Lebanon to leave the country, and the number of princes, ministers and high-level executives arrested within the investigation regarding allegations of corruption surpassed 200. The fact that the U.K. announced that it is ready for a $2 billion credit support for Aramco shows that the U.K. also has a certain positioning regarding the reflections of the tension between the U.S. and China in the Arabian Peninsula and the Gulf region. Above all, China’s One Belt, One Road initiative is referred to as a BeijingLondon rail line within some circles. Meanwhile, we should also note the visit of French President Emmanuel Macron to Riyadh concerning the Lebanon issue.
Simultaneous with these events is Trump’s Asia-Pacific tour that started with South Korea and continues with China. Trump, who continues to threaten North Korea, also brought up his expectation of further collaboration on the topic during his visit to China. Trump, even though he is troubled by China’s One Belt, One Road initiative, finalized $250 billion in cooperation agreements between the U.S. and Chinese companies, mentioning that he does not blame Beijing for the trade imbalance between the U.S. and China and that previous U.S. administrations are responsible. Trump also said this imbalance must be fixed as it does not work anymore. Analysts have evaluated Trump’s statements to be smooth compared to his previous accusatory statements against China.