The Green Revolution and Saudi-Iran tensions
Whether you call it the struggle for leadership in the Middle East or sectarian tension or the sovereignty race, Turkey is closely following the consistently increasing competition and tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran - a process highly beneficial for the U.S. and Russia, allowing the U.S. and Russia to penetrate and settle deeper into the Middle East and the Mediterranean. It also offers them significant opportunities to control the global fossil fuel market because the Green Revolution - the tremendous progress in renewable energy, intelligent energy and non-carbon energy technologies - will trigger and accelerate significant breaks in terms of demand and price for global carbon and fossil fuel-based energy markets from 2030 onward.
Thus, the U.S. and Russia want a world where, all important fossil energy derivative producers in the Middle East are weakened, the arms and wings of Iran and Saudi Arabia are broken, and China and India cannot meet the energy demand from the Strait of Hormuz; thus, large energy consumer countries and regions (Europe, China, India, and Africa) will depend on them. The main point: The world will invest $10.2 trillion from 2020 to 2040 in intelligent energy technologies - renewable energy technologies and non-carbon energy technologies for subsequent demand. In 20 years, half of the world’s annual energy needs will be produced in power plants and facilities based on renewable energy technologies. By 2050, the number of electric cars in the world will exceed 1 billion. To maximize profit on a global scale from oil and natural gas, from now to 2040, the U.S. and Russia want to keep a large portion of the fossil fuel earnings of the next 20 years bypassing all competitors.
As a threat to Iran and Russia, the U.S. merely provoked, sometimes threatened Saudi Arabia; similarly, Russia seeks to use Iran as a threat against the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Israel. Against Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s statements that it will greatly reduce its production, even if it will not completely disappear as China’s oil producer over the next five years, Russia’s responses are that its oil production will rapidly decrease in 19 years and that it is taking steps to increase non-oil revenues for the country; and U.S. President Trump’s remarks on Saudi Arabia are its comeback. We must be very aware at this point that if a war - some are struggling to make it happen - breaks out between Saudi Arabia and Iran, this will hurt the diplomatic efforts in Turkey’s region.
CENTRAL BANKS MUST PROTECT THE REAL SECTOR
For the global economy, the last quarter of 2018 and 2019 point to a five-quarter period in which the primary and secondary effects of the trade and currency wars being waged by the U.S. and during which the danger of the U.S. escalating geopolitical risks with Russia, China, the EU and Turkey remain high. In this period, topics that will be carefully followed for the global economy will focus on the possible hike in global commodity and petroleum prices fueled by global demand and geopolitical tensions and on prominent central banks’ management of pressure that might arise from global inflation. At this point, we observe a process in which Mr. Trump’s strong objections to the Fed’s stance in raising interest rates are getting a reaction.
Central banks’ perceptions of “priority” missions for the fight against inflation, for price stability, with the risk of global inflation, has the potential to lead to new points of compression for the world economy, especially for 2019. In particular, a considerable number of economists are worried that the Fed’s determination to reduce its balance sheet and sustain the rise in interest rates, will increase the cost of financing in the U.S. economy, negatively affecting the profitability and investment appetite of the real sector, in particular, and that this will drag the U.S. into a deep recession. The possibility that the Fed’s stance would seriously raise the value of the U.S. dollar will disrupt the Trump Administration’s operation to compel rival countries with trade wars. The financial tightening steps that the Fed will join, along with the European Central Bank (ECB) as well in 2019 autumn possibly, will increase borrowing costs for dollars and euros.
The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest Global Financial Stability Report points out that with regards to increasing compression in global financial conditions, risks are increasing at the aspect of transforming or managing the global debt stock, the probability that the real sector’s profitability will be negatively affected from this situation, and if the profitability of both the real sector and the financial system is negatively affected, significant value losses may happen in capital markets at the global scale. However, one of the preliminary conditions for sustainable growth for countries and the global economy is a satisfactory profit environment for the real sector. Thus, we are entering a conjuncture where central banks, by re-evaluating their traditional or conventional attitudes, must concentrate on a set of monetary policies that protect real sector profitability. I want to remind readers that discussions are being made about the possibility of a loss of between 10 percent and 15 percent in the real sector in Europe if no consensus is established on the issue.