Manufactur ng performance stable

Tatha Ghose,

Dunya Executive - - REPORT - strateg st, Commerzbank

Last week, apparently strong ndustr al product on read ngs were publ shed by Hungary and Turkey: Hungar an ndustr al output rose by 5.4% year-on-year for September; Turk sh output rose by a huge 13.4%. These read ngs tr ggered some hyperbole on the w res about ‘‘how strong’’ manufactur ng performance had been recently. In real ty however, the stat st cs were merely stable; Hungar an output actually decl ned month-on-month. That s the problem w th year-on-year growth read ngs, wh ch are often m slead ng. In th s case, the Turk sh number was ent rely the product of a weak base from last September because of the coup aftermath. When we look at seasonally and workday adjusted output levels, we see that Turk sh manufactur ng managed to cont nue on a stable path – output was up by a decent 0.6% month-on-month, no huge number – wh le Hungar an output actually fell by 0.7% month-onmonth n September. Overall, the manufactur ng recovery appears to be stable but d d not p ck up momentum n the past couple of months. (Nov. 8)

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