CHINA ECONOMY COOLS AGAIN
Country’s factory output, retail sales miss estimates
BEIJING: China’s economy cooled further last month, with factory output, fixed asset investment and retail sales missing expectations as the government extended a crackdown on debt risks and factory pollution.
Beijing is already in the second year of a campaign to reduce high levels of debt as authorities worry that riskier lending practices, especially in the real estate sector, could imperil the economy.
Data on Tuesday pointed to moderating growth over the next few quarters as credit expansion slows, with year-on-year industrial output gain of 6.2 per cent in October missing analysts’ estimates of a 6.3 per cent rise, and below a 6.6 per cent increase in September. Fixed-asset investment growth slowed to 7.3 per cent in the January-october period, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said. Analysts had expected an increase of 7.4 per cent.
“The moderation in activity data released today suggests that growth slowed in October and adds to our conviction that it will continue to do so in the quarters ahead,” Nomura analysts wrote in a note to clients.
China’s economy has surprised financial markets with robust growth of nearly 6.9 per cent in the first nine months of this year, underpinned by a recovery in its manufacturing and industrial sectors thanks to a government-led infrastructure spending spree, a resilient property market and unexpected strength in exports.
That has supported the world economy as the Asian giant has continued to hoover up commodities and consumer goods, helping to stoke underlying global demand for cars and smartphones to TVS and industrial products.
But the world’s second-largest economy has started to show signs of fatigue, with momentum seen slackening further as Beijing’s crackdown on debt risks curbs demand and tighter pollution rules hits factory output.
China’s exports and import growth both eased in October, while the smog war dragged on manufacturing activity last month. To be sure, data has yet to point to any marked deceleration in economic growth, and analysts see only a modest loss of momentum over the next few months.
Indeed, China’s producer prices were surprisingly strong in October, despite muted activity during the golden week holiday.
Profits for the country’s industrial powerhouses surged 27.7 per cent in September, the most in nearly six years, as environmental inspections and the start of plant closures in smog-blighted northern provinces sparked fears of supply shortages and sent prices of finished goods like steel and copper sharply higher.
Employees scan boxes and parcels at a logistic centre in Harbin, China, on Tuesday.