1.5°C cli­mate goal un­likely but doable: Re­port

The Gulf Today - - WORLD -

PARIS: The Paris Agree­ment goal of cap­ping global warm­ing at 1.5°C will slip be­yond reach un­less na­tions act now to slash car­bon pol­lu­tion, curb en­ergy de­mand, and suck CO2 from the air, ac­cord­ing to a draft UN re­port.

With­out such ef­forts, “hold­ing warm­ing to 1.5°C by the end of the 21st cen­tury [is] ex­tremely un­likely,” said the 1,000-page re­port, pre­pared by hun­dreds of sci­en­tists.

“There is a very high risk that un­der cur­rent emis­sions tra­jec­to­ries, and cur­rent na­tional pledges, global warm­ing will ex­ceed 1.5°C above prein­dus­trial lev­els.”

On cur­rent trends, Earth’s ther­mome­ter will cross that thresh­old in the 2040s, said the re­port.

The green­house gas emis­sions guar­an­tee­ing that out­come will have been re­leased within 10 to 15 years.

Un­der any sce­nario, there is no model that projects a 66-per cent-or-bet­ter chance of hold­ing global warm­ing be­low 1.5°C, the syn­the­sis of re­cent scientiic stud­ies con­cluded.

With only a sin­gle de­gree Cel­sius of warm­ing so far, our planet is al­ready cop­ing with a crescendo of cli­mate im­pacts in­clud­ing deadly droughts, er­ratic rain­fall, and storm surges en­gorged by ris­ing seas.

The land­mark, 197-na­tion cli­mate treaty, inked in 2015, calls for lim­it­ing global warm­ing to “well un­der” 2°C, and “pur­su­ing ef­forts” for the 1.5°C cap.

All coun­tries made vol­un­tary car­bon­cut­ting pledges, run­ning out to 2030.

At the same time, the UN’S In­ter­gov­ern­men­tal Panel for Cli­mate Change (IPCC) was man­dated to pre­pare a spe­cial 1.5°C re­port cov­er­ing im­pacts and fea­si­bil­ity.

The inal ver­sion, vet­ted by gov­ern­ments, will be un­veiled in Oc­to­ber.

Pres­sure for the lower tem­per­a­ture tar­get and the re­port came from na­tions whose fate could turn on the half-de­gree dif­fer­ence be­tween a 1.5°C and 2°C world.

Ris­ing seas, for ex­am­ple, threaten the ex­is­tence of small is­land states and could dis­place tens of mil­lions in Bangladesh, Viet­nam and other coun­ties with densely pop­u­lated river deltas.

“There is a tip­ping point on sea level rise” — driven mainly by melt­ing icesheets on Green­land and Antarc­tica — “some­where be­tween 1.5°C and 2°C,” said Hans Joachim Schellnhu­ber, di­rec­tor of the Pots­dam In­sti­tute for Cli­mate Im­pact Research.

“With 2°C, ac­cord­ing to our mod­els, sea level will just keep on ris­ing,” he said.

Newspapers in English

Newspapers from UAE

© PressReader. All rights reserved.