IRAN’S RETURN TO ARMS MARKET SEEMS SET TO BE A DAMP SQUIB
▶ Despite the end of a UN weapons ban, cash-strapped Tehran has too few major suppliers
After years of being barred from importing weapons, Iran’s generals may find that today’s lifting of an arms embargo may not be enough for them to upgrade their decrepit arsenal.
Defence experts told The National that Iran’s coronavirus-ravaged and isolated economy can ill-afford a big military shopping spree, and would-be suppliers like Russia will be loath to re-arm Tehran even after the embargo is lifted.
Instead, Iran is likely to slowly acquire anti-tank missiles, thermal vision kits, portable anti-aircraft arms and other equipment that makes its proxies in Syria, Iraq and Yemen deadlier, but does not make a game-changer, they said.
“Iran has no money, and major military systems are very expensive,” Robert Czulda, an expert on Iran’s military at the University of Lodz in Poland, told The National.
“You can’t just buy an aircraft – you also need missiles, equipment, pilot training and ground maintenance teams. Also, not so many countries would be willing to sell arms to Iran.”
Today, a long-standing UN arms embargo on Iran expires. The end-date was agreed between Tehran, the US and other powers in a 2015 deal that traded sanctions relief for limits on Iran’s nuclear programme.
The Donald Trump administration walked away from that deal in 2018 and demanded the embargo remain. US efforts to extend the embargo were rejected by its European allies, Russia, China and others who wanted to stick to the 2015 deal.
Tehran will not have a wholly free hand. Curbs on Iran’s ballistic missiles programme are locked in until 2023 and the EU is maintaining its own arms embargo on Iran, also until 2023.
The US, too, says it will “impose consequences” on countries – and companies – that sell arms to Iran.
Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said in September that Iran could deal with Russia and China, who need not worry about “secondary US sanctions”, ac
cording to a report from Russia’s Sputnik news agency.
Iran’s armoury resembles a military museum. It includes F-14 Tomcats and other gear that the US and Britain sold to the pro-Western shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, before he was toppled in the 1979 revolution. In 2007, the UN imposed the arms embargo amid growing fears over Iran’s nuclear programme.
Iran has nonetheless flexed its muscles in the region. It builds missiles and drones, acquired the S- 300 air defence system from Russia and man-portable air-defence systems, or manpads, from China,
said Jack Watling, from the UK Royal United Services Institute.
Iran can thus defend itself from some air attacks. It can also launch missile strikes like last year’s attack on Saudi Aramco oil plants – although Tehran denied responsibility – and support Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthis and other proxy forces.
The prospect of Iran rearming worries the US, its Gulf allies and Israel, which all regard Tehran as a threat. That concern is justified, but perhaps overblown as Tehran is “fairly broke” now, Mr Watling said.
Iran’s economy has been battered by the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign of unilateral sanctions, the Covid-19 pandemic and tumbling oil prices. The rial has lost about 57 per cent of its value this year.
The cash-strapped Iranians will also struggle to find suppliers, Mr Czulda said. Russia does not want to offend Israel and Saudi Arabia by selling arms to
their adversary. “China is the most likely supplier,” he said.
Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran expert at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, a US think tank, said Tehran would be likely to turn to “informal and black markets” in Southeast Asia and Central Europe.
“Iran is not aiming to become a conventional military power,” Mr Taleblu said. “It is likely looking to acquire select systems and technologies that can enhance the lethality of existing threat streams while laying the foundation for new capabilities.”
Tehran’s list includes electronic warfare systems, communications gear and upgrades to engines and missile guidance and navigation systems, Mr Czulda said. He also anticipated a small warplane deal for PR purposes.
“They will continue to pursue their strategy that they’ve followed quite successfully these past eight years: de-prioritise the traditional army forces and focus on the Islamic Revolu
tionary Guard Corps, special forces and long-range ballistic missiles,” added Mr Watling.
Iran could slowly acquire basic radar and thermal imaging to equip such groups as the Houthis, who are fighting a Saudi-led coalition that aims to restore the country’s UN-recognised government, Mr Watling said.
“It’s not a game-changer,” he added.
Negotiating arms deals, production, receiving deliveries, training proxies to use new systems and sending equipment to regional hotspots could take as long as five years.
Nevertheless, Houthi mountain combat units would then be a harder target to hit.
“It means they’ll see us coming, which means there’ll be a big firefight. Could the US, the UK, the UAE still defeat that tactical Houthi unit? Yes, absolutely. But it increases the cost,” Mr Watling said.
Iran could slowly acquire basic radar systems and thermal imaging gear to equip such proxy groups as the Houthis