Ber­lin, Ger­many

The Week Middle East - - News -

Plan­ning ahead: A gov­ern­ment dossier leaked to Der Spiegel has revealed that Ber­lin is ac­tively plan­ning for a va­ri­ety of pos­si­ble devel­op­ments in Eu­rope, in­clud­ing – in the most pes­simistic sce­nario – the col­lapse of the EU by 2040, and Ger­man in­volve­ment in mul­ti­ple armed con­flicts on its bor­ders. Ac­cord­ing to Der Spiegel, Strate­gic Per­spec­tive 2040 is the first re­port of its kind, and was com­mis­sioned partly in re­sponse to the West’s fail­ure to an­tic­i­pate Rus­sia’s un­de­clared war in east­ern Ukraine. It sug­gests six pos­si­ble sce­nar­ios, based on anal­y­sis of so­cial, po­lit­i­cal, eco­nomic and mil­i­tary trends – and its con­clu­sions are sup­posed to as­sist Ger­many’s armed forces in their plan­ning. Among the other sce­nar­ios it en­vis­ages are “mul­ti­po­lar com­pe­ti­tion” – in which na­tion­al­ist pol­i­tics drives EU frag­men­ta­tion – and “West ver­sus East”, in which east­ern EU states break away to form a new bloc.

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