Par­ties set to ben­e­fit from the slump of UKIP

Re­gional anal­y­sis of na­tional sur­vey gives an in­sight into vot­ing in­ten­tions

Buckinghamshire Advertiser - - FRONT PAGE - by CLAIRE MILLER claire.miller@trin­i­tymir­ror.com Twit­ter: @clairemilleruk

BOTH the Labour and Con­ser­va­tive vote may be set to rise in the South East as sup­port for UKIP drops, ac­cord­ing to an exclusive na­tion­wide sur­vey of vot­ing in­ten­tions.

Some 28% of re­spon­dents to the sur­vey in the re­gion said they in­tended to vote for Labour on June 8 – com­pared to the 25% of re­spon­dents who backed the party in the 2015 Gen­eral Elec­tion.

Some 39% said they planned to vote Con­ser­va­tive next month, com­pared to 36% who said they voted Tory in 2015.

UKIP ap­pear to be the big losers, with 8% of vot­ers say­ing would back the party this time, and 13% say­ing they did so in 2015.

The Lib Dems could also see a slight in­crease in their vote share in the re­gion com­pared with 2015, the sur­vey sug­gests.

Some 13% said they would back Tim Far­ron’s party next month while only 11% said they voted Lib Dem in 2015.

The sur­vey also re­veals more than half of vot­ers in the South East (57%) say Brexit will be a fac­tor in how they vote.

A ma­jor­ity be­lieve Theresa May would be a bet­ter Brexit ne­go­tia­tor than Jeremy Cor­byn, with 58% of peo­ple in the re­gion choos­ing her com­pared with 26% for the Labour leader.

Con­fi­dence in Mrs May in­creases with age, with 76% of those aged 65 and over think­ing she would be the best Brexit ne­go­tia­tor, com­pared with 44% of 18 to 24 year-olds.

A quar­ter of re­spon­dents are con­sid­er­ing vot­ing tac­ti­cally in the Gen­eral Elec­tion, with a fur­ther fifth (18%) say­ing they are still un­de­cided on who they will sup­port.

Men were more likely to have ruled out a tac­ti­cal vote – 64% com­pared to 49% of women.

The over-65s were also the least likely to be con­sid­er­ing a tac­ti­cal vote.

Some 76% in that age group in the South East said they would not vote tac­ti­cally, com­pared with 42% of 18 to 24-year-olds who have ruled out a tac­ti­cal vote.

The coun­ties cov­ered in this sur­ve­yare Hamp­shire, Sur­rey, Berk­shire, Buck­ing­hamshire, East Sus­sex, Hamp­shire, Kent, Ox­ford­shire and West Sus­sex.

The sur­vey was car­ried out on­line in part­ner­ship with Google Sur­veys on news­pa­per web­sites, pub­lisher sites and Google’s na­tive app.

A to­tal of 9,741 peo­ple com­pleted the sur­vey na­tion­wide.

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