Economic week ahead
Can the economy keep surging back from its lockdown lows? We will find out on Friday with the July GDP growth figures.
Businesses continued to reopen that month, with restaurants, cafes and pubs allowed to welcome customers from July 4. Oxford Economics predicts growth of 5.5pc in the month, led by a recovery in services and construction.
This would represent a slowdown from the 8.6pc recorded in June, though still very rapid by historic standards. That would put the economy on track for growth of around 15pc in the third quarter compared with the collapse in the previous three months. At the end of June, GDP was still around 17pc below its pre-Covid level.
We will find out more about the recovery on the continent with July’s industrial production numbers for Germany today and France on Thursday.
Christine Lagarde has a chance to outline her latest view on Thursday at September’s European Central Bank policy meeting, though economists do not anticipate any changes to interest rates or quantitative easing.
Tomorrow, the British Retail Consortium publishes sales data, showing whether shops maintained growth for the full summer.