Eco­nomic week ahead

The Daily Telegraph - Business - - Business -

Can the econ­omy keep surg­ing back from its lock­down lows? We will find out on Fri­day with the July GDP growth fig­ures.

Busi­nesses con­tin­ued to re­open that month, with restau­rants, cafes and pubs al­lowed to wel­come cus­tomers from July 4. Ox­ford Eco­nom­ics pre­dicts growth of 5.5pc in the month, led by a re­cov­ery in ser­vices and con­struc­tion.

This would rep­re­sent a slow­down from the 8.6pc recorded in June, though still very rapid by his­toric stan­dards. That would put the econ­omy on track for growth of around 15pc in the third quar­ter com­pared with the col­lapse in the pre­vi­ous three months. At the end of June, GDP was still around 17pc be­low its pre-Covid level.

We will find out more about the re­cov­ery on the con­ti­nent with July’s in­dus­trial pro­duc­tion num­bers for Ger­many to­day and France on Thurs­day.

Chris­tine La­garde has a chance to out­line her lat­est view on Thurs­day at Septem­ber’s Euro­pean Cen­tral Bank pol­icy meet­ing, though econ­o­mists do not an­tic­i­pate any changes to in­ter­est rates or quan­ti­ta­tive eas­ing.

To­mor­row, the Bri­tish Re­tail Con­sor­tium pub­lishes sales data, show­ing whether shops main­tained growth for the full sum­mer.

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