Daily Mail

Yes, she’s in grave peril. But she CAN prevail

- COMMENTARY by Peter Oborne

EveR since Boris Johnson’s sensationa­l resignatio­n as foreign secretary in July, Westminste­r has been waiting for him to make his move. Yesterday Mr Johnson struck.

The news that he has teamed up once more with election guru Sir Lynton Crosby to block Theresa May’s plans for a compromise Brexit – the so- called Chequers package – amounts to a declaratio­n of war on the Prime Minister.

Sir Lynton, who famously guided his fellow Australian John Howard to four consecutiv­e election victories, is the most respected political strategist not just in Britain, but arguably the world.

He got to know Mr Johnson well when he mastermind­ed his two successful campaigns to be mayor of London.

Now the two are joining forces again – and this time the target is 10 Downing Street. Those close to Mr Johnson swear blind that he has no intention of damaging Mrs May.

They say he simply wants to force her to renege on the Chequers package agreed eight weeks ago – her pragmatic negotiatin­g position allowing Brussels to retain huge powers over Britain in return for trading benefits.

I have no doubt those protestati­ons are sincere. But I cannot see how Mrs May can abandon Chequers and keep her job.

She has vested every ounce of her authority in Chequers, so if Mr Johnson kills off Chequers, he will destroy Mrs May and her premiershi­p as well. What makes the Boris problem deadly serious for Mrs May is the fact that the former foreign secretary has the support of a phalanx of deeply committed Brexiteers.

Reportedly, the Chequers mutineers include the former Brexit minister Steve Baker, as well as Stewart Jackson, an aide to David Davis before he resigned as Brexit negotiator.

FoRMeRCabi­net ministers John Redwood, owen Paterson and Priti Patel all want to block Chequers – as does Jacob Rees-Mogg, leader of the backbench Brexiteers.

They are ready and willing to vote down the deal that Mrs May wants to strike with Brussels.

In ordinary times that might not matter too much. But Mrs May lacks a Commons majority after her disastrous decision to call a general election last year.

Crucially, the Prime Minister has committed herself to calling a Commons vote on the final deal she strikes with Brussels. If she is to force through a Brexit vote in the Commons, it now looks certain she will need support from some Labour MPs.

And the chances that Jeremy Corbyn will save her bacon look remote. Much more likely, the embattled Labour leader will try to force a general election. He will point out – reasonably enough – that it’s not his job as leader of the opposition to keep a Tory government in office.

Worse still for Mrs May, the Brexit rebels are not her only problem. even loyalists are turning against Chequers.

Nick Boles, close ally of environmen­t Secretary Michael Gove, was a defender of Chequers until a few weeks ago. Now even this senior backbenche­r has turned against the plan. Nick Timothy, Mrs May’s adviser when she was home secretary and during her early months in Downing Street, is rubbishing Chequers.

To add to her woes, chief european trade negotiator Michel Barnier warned over the weekend that allowing Britain to strike the Chequers deal would mark the end of the european project.

It is tempting to conclude that Chequers is finished and Mrs May is in a much weaker position than at any stage of her premiershi­p. But I still give this redoubtabl­e lady a fighting chance.

She has been written off many times by political commentato­rs over the past two years.

each time she has defied her critics and survived – and now she has some cards in her favour.

First, there is the Jeremy Corbyn factor. Mrs May will point out to her supporters that if she is forced from office then there will, in all probabilit­y, be a general election that could hand the keys of Downing Street to the leftwing Labour leader.

The Tories have only a slender lead in opinion polls.

of course, there are those who would counter that it seems more than likely that Corbyn could be forced out by a Labour mutiny at its party conference later this month. But Mrs May’s allies can argue that a more centrist Labour leader could make matters yet worse for the Conservati­ves.

This is because polls suggest such a figure (for example former Cabinet minister Yvette Cooper) might even lead Labour to a landslide victory against a Tory party at war with itself and perceived to have made a hash of Brexit. However, I think the real joker in Mrs May’s armoury pack isn’t Mr Corbyn. It’s Mr Johnson.

Yes, he has emerged as the largely undisputed leader of the Tory Brexiteers. Yes, he deserves this position after his honourable resignatio­n from the Cabinet over Mrs May’s Brexit strategy.

MRJohnson is the only one of the original Brexiteers who has consistent­ly argued for a clean break with europe. He has, as a result, a crowd of admirers on the Tory benches and in the country.

Deservedly so. But he is also hated with real venom by some of his fellow Tories. For them the prospect of Mr Johnson in 10 Downing Street is a truly dreadful one. And they know that the most likely Tory leader if Mrs May goes is Mr Johnson. It could yet stay their hand. That is why I would still bet on Mrs May somehow navigating a very messy Brexit and keeping her job in the process.

But there is no doubt that we are entering uncharted waters. It’s going to be a roller-coaster of an autumn.

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