DEFINITLY MAYBE?
THE more I look at the fancied runners in the Gold Cup the less and less I fancy them, as I was saying to my pal Les only the other day.
And yet historically it pays to look at the front three in the betting when it comes to this race.
To be more specific, it pays to back one of the front three in the betting with 13 of the last 15 winners hailing from the head of the market.
Given that statistic I’m surprised I haven’t backed more winners in this contest over the years.
Regular readers of this column probably won’t share that surprise.
The front three in the market this year are Might Bite, Native River and Our Duke.
Needless to say I don’t fancy any of them.
In fact, I wouldn’t back Might Bite with Bitcoin.
His King George victory came against a bunch of substandard rivals, only beating the 151-rated Double Shuffle by a length.
Nick Henderson’s nine-yearold won’t like running on the soft stuff, he has a bad habit of wavering about in front and his preferred tactic of making the running ain’t going to work against these top-class stayers.
I mean, what’s Might Bite even doing in the front three in the betting?
Jessica Harrington could become only the third trainer to win back-to-back Gold Cups with two different horses in consecutive seasons, but I don’t think Our Duke is a consistent enough jumper to win today.
I envisage Native River being backed into favouritism given his fondness for the going but I reckon he’ll be picked off at the business end of the race.
One horse who should relish DEFINITLY the conditions is RED.
Brian Ellison’s nine-year-old put in an ultra impressive jumping display at Cheltenham last time in a Grade 2 in January and I’ve a feeling his best is yet to come.
He was badly hampered in last year’s Grand National when well weighted and, with a clear round, looks a cracking eachway poke today.