When facts are your enemy, confusion and doubt are friends

Politicians and voters must have honest and informed debate about the economic challenges that would face an independent Scotland

SNP MSP Joan McAlpine used her column in this paper on Wednesday to try to cast doubt on her own Scottish Government’s GERS figures, the official numbers that tell us how Scotland’s economy performs.

When oil was booming, McAlpine and her SNP colleagues were quick to quote GERS figures as proof Scotland was a wealthy country, so this U-turn might seem surprising.

If McAlpine’s column represents an approved party line, it looks as if the SNP are trying to avoid an honest debate on the economic challenges an independent Scotland would face.

It would be like tobacco firms who, when faced with evidence of the link between smoking and cancer, focused on questioning the science and placing doubt in people’s minds. When facts are your enemy, confusion and doubt are your friends.

To be fair, we’ve yet to see the SNP leadership suggest we can’t trust our own Government’s figures – but we’ve also yet to see them shut down those in their party who, like Joan, seem to be becoming GERS deniers. Maybe the SNP hierarchy think a bit of doubt and confusion is helpful.

So let’s look at McAlpine’s claims. She incorrectly refers to GERS as “the UK Treasury’s understanding” of Scotland’s economy – she should know they represent the Scottish Government’s understanding. So how can she suggest her own Government’s figures are “absurd”?

She relies entirely on the wild-eyed claims of Professor Richard Murphy, a chartered accountant and self-proclaimed architect of “Corbynomics”.

Those hoping to foster confusion and doubt would be delighted for people like me to fill column inches explaining why Murphy is wrong. That way they stop us talking about what the figures tell us.

McAlpine’s advice to people presented with inconvenient truths was hardly subtle – “throw three words at them: Professor Richard Murphy”. Who needs facts when you’ve been taught the name of a tame professor who gives you permission to ignore them?

For what it’s worth, Murphy clearly doesn’t understand the GERS figures. He doesn’t realise the Scottish Government compile our export data, so it isn’t “the UK Government making this up”.

He fails to grasp that it’s the Scottish Government’s chief economist who decides on the assumptions behind the GERS figures, so nothing is “what the UK Government decides it should be”. I explain more of his mistakes on my blog (see below) but his biggest error is to claim that the figures can’t be trusted because estimates are used.

I asked a couple of exceptionally well qualified economics professors about Murphy’s claims and you can see what they had to say on the left.

Put simply – nearly all economic statistics are estimates but to be qualified as National Statistics (as GERS are) the figures have to be shown to be trustworthy. End of discussion.

So let’s focus on why some Yes supporters want to deny the economic reality in GERS – what are they so desperate to distract you from?

Well, the figures effectively tell us four things.

Firstly, how much tax revenue the Scottish economy generates from our current economic activity and taxes, such as income tax, VAT and council tax.

Secondly, how much money is spent to deliver public services – health, education, pensions, social welfare, policing and so on. Thirdly, how much it costs us if we pay our population share of expenses incurred for the benefit of the UK as a whole – mainly defence, debt interest and international affairs. Finally, they show what happens if you take that revenue and subtract those costs. In the most recent year, we’d be in the red by £15billion – that’s the infamous £15billion “Scottish deficit”. Of course that wouldn’t be Scotland’s deficit if we were independent but all credible economists and responsible politicians (and even the SNP) use the GERS figures as a starting point to work out what an independent Scotland’s figures might look like. For example, we could assume we’d spend £0.6billion less than we’re currently allocated of UK-wide costs (like defence) and we’ll generate £7.9billion a year of oil revenue. That’s what the SNP’s Independence White Paper did last time round. They based our ability to maintain public spending on a reckless gamble about oil revenues. In fact, oil revenues this year will be around zero. If you understand GERS, the implication is clear – to survive as an independent country, Scotland would have to make dramatic spending cuts, far more painful than any “Westminster austerity”. Are the SNP prepared to be honest about the price we’d all pay for independence? If they allow high-profile MSPs like Joan McAlpine to rubbish their own figures, it’s surely not a good sign. In the interest of honest and informed debate, let’s hope the SNP leadership condemn those who pretend we don’t know basic facts about our economy and instead face the difficult truths those facts reveal.