Coming winter is likely to have mild temperature periods
I READ the Hinckley Times article of November 1, “Forecasters say it could be a cold winter ahead” with puzzlement, after reading the World Meteorological Organization article of 6 November, “2017 is set to be in top three hottest years, with recordbreaking extreme weather”.
A recent indication of continued Global Warming was Tropical Cyclone Ophelia.
On Monday 9 October at 9am GMT a Tropical Depression was reported by the USA Government Agency, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida; in the sub-tropic latitude of 31.1 north, tracking north at a speed of three knots in the mid Atlantic Ocean west of Morocco, Africa and east of South Carolina, USA. At 3pm GMT on Saturday 14 October Ophelia had intensified to a category three major Hurricane while south of Ponta Delgada and west of Rabat, Morocco.
At 3pm GMT Sunday Ophelia had weakened to a category one Hurricane, west of Porto, Portugal and east-northeast of Ponta Delgada, Azores: before tracking north-east toward The Republic of Ireland.
Ophelia having originated from a Tropical Cyclone in the subtropics latitudes contained a large amount of moisture, which when falling as rain overland, could have caused extensive flooding, landslides and a threat to life; however most of the rain fell to the west of Ireland over the Atlantic Ocean. The wind speed gust in excess of 100mph near to the centre of the storm caused structural damage when making land before weakening due to the land surface.
For a Tropical Cyclone to have tracked so far north and east in the Atlantic Ocean is unknown in the past and could only be maintained by a warm Sea Surface Temperature and a suitable low wind gradient.
So the forthcoming winter although likely to have some cold periods with air flowing from the Arctic or Greenland, is also likely to have mild temperature periods with air flowing from the south-west warm Atlantic Ocean.