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Hamil­ton will be cham­pion if:

He must fin­ish on the podium at least to stand a chance, and if he’s third Ros­berg must be ninth or lower

He fin­ishes sec­ond and Ros­berg is sev­enth or lower

He wins and Ros­berg is fourth or lower

Ros­berg will be cham­pion if:

He fin­ishes on the podium, re­gard­less of where Hamil­ton is

He fin­ishes 4th-6th and Hamil­ton does not win He fin­ishes 7th-8th and Hamil­ton isn’t in the top two

He fin­ishes 9th or lower and Hamil­ton isn’t on the podium

What about a tie?:

If Hamil­ton fin­ished fourth in Abu Dhabi and Ros­berg failed to score the pair would tie on 367 points, but Ros­berg would still take the ti­tle on count back thanks to his greater num­ber of sec­ond places (four to Hamil­ton’s three).

If Hamil­ton was sec­ond and Ros­berg sev­enth the two would tie on 373pts, but that would hand Hamil­ton the ti­tle on count­back due to his greater num­ber of third places (four to Ros­berg’s two)

Ti­tle chances:

Hamil­ton 14%

Ros­berg 86%

Top odds:

Hamil­ton 7/2

Ros­berg 1/4

Hamil­ton is the un­der­dog

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