Nick pullen

Key stats that split the St Leger field

Racing Ahead - - CONTENTS - Nick Pullen is the sta­tis­ti­cal an­a­lyst be­hind Against the Crowd – a sub­scrip­tion ser­vice that seeks to find win­ners via the stats. For de­tails go to: www.again­st­the­crowd.co.uk

Our anayl­sis ex­pert iden­ti­fies the key stats from Leger win­ners

The sum­mer doesn’t last long and we’re al­ready at the point where the fi­nal clas­sic of the sea­son – the St Leger – comes into fo­cus. This Group 1 con­test – run at Don­caster over the ex­tended 14f trip – presents the 3yo colts and fil­lies with a test of their stamina.

How well each in­di­vid­ual run­ner will cope with the chal­lenge is, more-of­ten­than-not, an un­known. Most will never have been tested be­yond 12f.

In fact, it is a stat worth bear­ing in mind that only 4 of the last 16 St Leger win­ners had pre­vi­ously gone be­yond 12f. Only 3 had gone be­yond 13f.

Those stats serve to un­der­line one plain fact:one of the prin­ci­pal chal­lenges fac­ing pun­ters in this race is fig­ur­ing out which horses are likely to ex­cel for the longer trip and which are most likely to fold as stamina re­serves prove in­ad­e­quate for the job at hand.

The stats can pro­vide a num­ber of help­ful point­ers. I’ve been look­ing at the num­bers re­lated to the last 32 re­newals of the St Leger.Here are a few things to bear in mind when you come to look at this year’s run­ners:

• 22 of the last 32 win­ners were prog­eny of a sire with a Stamina In­dex fig­ure of 11.0 or big­ger – and 6 of the 10 win­ners that didn’t con­form to that stat were prod­uct of dam whose sire had a Stamina In­dex of 10.3 or big­ger (in other words they had stamina on the dam side of their pedi­gree).

• There is a quick and dirty way of fig­ur­ing out whether or not a horse is likely to have suf­fi­cient stamina for the St Leger – whether that stamina comes from the sire or the dam side of the pedi­gree. Sim­ply add the Stamina In­dex of the sire to the Stamina In­dex fig­ure of the dam sire.If the sum of those two fig­ures equals or is big­ger than 19.4 you can put a tick against the horse.26 of the 28 pre­vi­ous win­ners for which the rel­e­vant fig­ures were avail­able met that yard­stick.

The Dosage In­dex can also help pun­ters sort the wheat from the chaff…. • As part of its Dosage Pro­file a horse is awarded a Cen­tre of Dis­tri­bu­tion (CD) fig­ure on a scale that ranges from +2.00 to -2.00. 27 of the last 32 St Leger win­ners had a CD fig­ure be­tween -0.19 and 0.50. You can get the CD fig­ures for this year’s run­ner at pedi­gree­query.com. For a full ex­pla­na­tion of the Dosage In­dex and all the fig­ures re­lated to it visit a slideshow tu­to­rial at www.chef-de­r­ace.com/tu­to­rial/tu­to­ri­al_ti­tle.htm. Slide 9 re­lates to how CD fig­ures are cal­cu­lated. •The S (Solid) and P (Pro­fes­sional) fig­ures are par­tic­u­larly im­por­tant when it comes to in­her­ited stamina – and 28 of the last 32 St Leger win­ners had at least 5 S and P points (when added to­gether) in their re­spec­tive Dosage Pro­files.

•Some­thing else to bear in mind: St Leger win­ners are gen­er­ally well-bred crea­tures with plenty of chef-de-race sires present in their fam­ily trees. So much so that all of the last 32 win­ners had at least 16 points in their Dosage Pro­file. 27 of the pre­vi­ous 32 win­ners had at least 20 points in their Dosage Pro­files. Get the Dosage Pro­files for this year’s St Leger run­ners at pedi­gree­query.com

There are a few more key sta­tis­ti­cal tests you can ap­ply to isolate likely types for the St Leger….

• Look for a Rac­ing Post rat­ing of at least 110 in one or both of a horse’s last 2 runs be­fore head­ing to Don­caster for the St Leger. 15 of the last 16 win­ners met that par­tic­u­lar yard­stick.

• Horses need to be con­di­tioned to run longer dis­tances – oth­er­wise there is a dan­ger that they will run too free or pull too hard when you step them up in trip.Whilst St Leger run­ners might not have gone be­yond 12f be­fore you do want to see that this‘trip ed­u­ca­tion’has taken place.What I look for are horses that have run at least twice at 12f or be­yond – 14 of the last 16 win­ners had al­ready gone be­yond 12f or raced at 12f at least twice.

Past per­for­mance is,of course,no guar­an­tee of fu­ture re­sults – but if the his­tor­i­cal record is any guide at all then the horses that con­form to the stan­dards set out above are the ones that rep­re­sent the best bets come Septem­ber 10th.

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