Gold cup trends

Key stats for BetVictor Gold Cup

Racing Ahead - - ANDY NEWTON -

So with the best of the Flat turf ac­tion be­hind us, we turn our at­ten­tion to the jumpers and there’s bun­dles to look for­ward to.We get a chance to see some old faces back in ac­tion straight away as the hedge-hop­ping ac­tion kicks into gear this month with the Chel­tenham Open Meet­ing (Nov 11-13), and we’ve an­other spon­sor change for their main race – The Gold Cup – with Paddy Power step­ping aside for BetVictor.

In re­cent years it’s been a fix­ture that the lead­ing NH sta­bles like the Pipes, Nigel Twis­ton-Davies and Jonjo O’Neill have done well at, and since 1996 those three pow­er­ful yards have between them won the meet­ings fea­ture race, now the BetVictor Gold Cup – 12 times!

The other big train­ing name to have done well in re­cent years is Paul Ni­cholls, but it wasn’t al­ways a good con­test for the 10-time Cham­pion Trainer.How­ever,with wins in 2012 (Al Ferof), and again in 2014 (Caid Du Ber­lais) he seems to have put that hoodoo that be­hind him. He’s also sent out 8 placed horses (2 winners), in­clud­ing a 20/1 third (Sound In­vest­ment) 12 months ago, from his last 28 run­ners. Last year we saw the Alan King trained 7-year-old An­na­cotty land the spoils in gutsy fash­ion, a win that that gave that yard their first in the con­test.

So with BetVictor now at the spon­sor­ship helm there’s a new era in terms of race name,but that doesn’t mean the past trends can be ig­nored – there are some mas­sive stats to help us nar­row down the run­ners and high­light the best win­ning pro­files of past winners.

With ALL of the last 14 winners hav­ing raced at Chel­tenham be­fore (10 of the last 14 had won at the course) then we should be able to put a line through sev­eral en­tries based on that alone.Also look for horses that have won pre­vi­ously over at least 2m4f (fences) and are also from UKbased yards – 13 of the last 14 winners fit the bill on both those fronts.

Age is next up as it’s been a de­cent con­test for 6 and 7 year-olds in re­cent times with 11 of the last 14 (79%) win­ning from that age group and that was again backed-up 12 months ago with the 7 yearold An­na­cotty get­ting his head in front - the last dou­ble-fig­ure aged win­ner was in 1975.Also note horses that were placed in the first four in their most re­cent race – 9 of the last 13 tick that trend.

Next up is not to be too wor­ried if a horse is hav­ing its first run of the new NH sea­son as 8 of the last 14 winners (57%) came fit and ready af­ter a lay-off.

In terms of the favourites, we’ve seen three win­ning mar­ket lead­ers in the last 14 run­nings, with 50% of the jol­lies mak­ing the frame (first 4). With that in mind the pun­ters prob­a­bly just edge it over the book­mak­ers in re­cent years - this is backed-up fur­ther with 8 of the last 14 winners com­ing from the first three in the bet­ting and with 79% of the last 14 winners re­turn­ing 12/1 or shorter in the bet­ting.

Be­ing a hand­i­cap then the weight-car­ried is cer­tainly worth not­ing too. Ten of the last 14 winners took this with 11-0 or less on their backs.

Newspapers in English

Newspapers from UK

© PressReader. All rights reserved.