Gold cup trends
Key stats for BetVictor Gold Cup
So with the best of the Flat turf action behind us, we turn our attention to the jumpers and there’s bundles to look forward to.We get a chance to see some old faces back in action straight away as the hedge-hopping action kicks into gear this month with the Cheltenham Open Meeting (Nov 11-13), and we’ve another sponsor change for their main race – The Gold Cup – with Paddy Power stepping aside for BetVictor.
In recent years it’s been a fixture that the leading NH stables like the Pipes, Nigel Twiston-Davies and Jonjo O’Neill have done well at, and since 1996 those three powerful yards have between them won the meetings feature race, now the BetVictor Gold Cup – 12 times!
The other big training name to have done well in recent years is Paul Nicholls, but it wasn’t always a good contest for the 10-time Champion Trainer.However,with wins in 2012 (Al Ferof), and again in 2014 (Caid Du Berlais) he seems to have put that hoodoo that behind him. He’s also sent out 8 placed horses (2 winners), including a 20/1 third (Sound Investment) 12 months ago, from his last 28 runners. Last year we saw the Alan King trained 7-year-old Annacotty land the spoils in gutsy fashion, a win that that gave that yard their first in the contest.
So with BetVictor now at the sponsorship helm there’s a new era in terms of race name,but that doesn’t mean the past trends can be ignored – there are some massive stats to help us narrow down the runners and highlight the best winning profiles of past winners.
With ALL of the last 14 winners having raced at Cheltenham before (10 of the last 14 had won at the course) then we should be able to put a line through several entries based on that alone.Also look for horses that have won previously over at least 2m4f (fences) and are also from UKbased yards – 13 of the last 14 winners fit the bill on both those fronts.
Age is next up as it’s been a decent contest for 6 and 7 year-olds in recent times with 11 of the last 14 (79%) winning from that age group and that was again backed-up 12 months ago with the 7 yearold Annacotty getting his head in front - the last double-figure aged winner was in 1975.Also note horses that were placed in the first four in their most recent race – 9 of the last 13 tick that trend.
Next up is not to be too worried if a horse is having its first run of the new NH season as 8 of the last 14 winners (57%) came fit and ready after a lay-off.
In terms of the favourites, we’ve seen three winning market leaders in the last 14 runnings, with 50% of the jollies making the frame (first 4). With that in mind the punters probably just edge it over the bookmakers in recent years - this is backed-up further with 8 of the last 14 winners coming from the first three in the betting and with 79% of the last 14 winners returning 12/1 or shorter in the betting.
Being a handicap then the weight-carried is certainly worth noting too. Ten of the last 14 winners took this with 11-0 or less on their backs.