Andy new­ton

Andy New­ton dis­sects a race the book­ies love

Racing Ahead - - CONTENTS -

Why the King of Gal­way,Der­mot Weld, faces plenty of com­pe­ti­tion Key trends and facts ahead of the Ebor Hand­i­cap atYork

Where is this year go­ing? It’s hard to be­lieve we are al­ready in Au­gust and re­ally we are also in the fi­nal few months of the flat turf sea­son – crazy!

So,with that,jump rac­ing fans will start to have one eye on the up-com­ing Na­tional Hunt sea­son, but let’s not wish our lives away as there is still plenty to look for­ward to in Au­gust – in­clud­ing the four-day York Ebor fix­ture (23rd-26th) and that’s where I’m head­ing for this month’s ‘big race’ trends piece.

Over the four days there are some flat sea­son high­light races,in­clud­ing the Nun­thorpe Stakes, Jud­dmonte In­ter­na­tional, Great Voltigeur Stakes and the York­shire Oaks, but the Bet­fred Ebor Hand­i­cap has al­ways been a de­cent con­test for the trends so that’s the race I’m go­ing to be fo­cus­ing on here.

The race was first staged in 1843,and is cur­rently the most valu­able hand­i­cap in Europe, so with a de­cent pot up for grabs it’s no sur­prise this 1m6f con­test at­tracts an ul­tra-com­pet­i­tive field – and this year will be no dif­fer­ent.

Tak­ing a quick look at the ante-post bet­ting sug­gests the 2017 re­newal is go­ing to be another tough one for pun­ters to un­ravel, but with so many top trends then hope­fully we can nar­row the big field down once we know the fi­nal run­ners on Thurs­day 24th Au­gust.

So, let’s get started. First up is to look at the age of past win­ners.We saw a sev­enyear-old win the race in 2015,but with 14 of the last 15 win­ners aged six or less then re­cent re­sults sug­gest we should be wary of the older horses.With 11 of the last 15 win­ners aged four or five then this is clearly the age bracket we need to be con­cen­trat­ing on. Lit­i­gant won the race in 2015 as a seven-year-old, but be­fore that the mighty Sea Pi­geon (nine) in 1979 was the last horse older than six to win.

Many will feel that be­ing run over 1m6f that the draw isn’t go­ing to have much im­pact – wrong! De­spite be­ing run over this longer flat trip the star­ing po­si­tion of your fancy is cer­tainly some­thing to note, es­pe­cially with 12 of the last 15 win­ners hail­ing from a dou­ble-fig­ure stall.Get­ting a good early po­si­tion in the race and, more im­por­tantly, sav­ing valu­able ground is key – es­pe­cially when turn­ing for home atYork.This is fur­ther backed-up as we’ve seen just two placed horses from stall one in the last 15 years!

Hav­ing pre­vi­ously won over 1m4f is im­por­tant too with 12 of the last 15 win­ners fit­ting this trend, but this will, of course, ap­ply to most of the run­ners. Be­ing a hand­i­cap then the weight car­ried by your horse is another key stat to note with ALL of the last 15 win­ners hav­ing 9-4 or less, while 11 of those won with 9-1 or less on their backs.

It’s also been a race the book­ies have loved in re­cent years – why? Well, we’ve seen just one win­ning favourite in the last 18 years, while if you like lay­ing horses on the bet­ting ex­changes then you might also be in­ter­ested to know that eight of the last 15 mar­ket lead­ers have even failed to hit the frame.

Run­ners that had three or more out­ings that same sea­son is another trend to look for (9 from 15), while 6six of the last 15 win­ners had pre­vi­ous course ex­pe­ri­ence at York. A huge nine of the last 15 (60%) win­ners ran at ei­ther Good­wood or As­cot in their last race, so it’s cer­tainly worth delv­ing back in the form to see where your fancy last raced.

Fi­nally, in terms of yards to note, then look no fur­ther than Luca Cu­mani. The New­mar­ket-based sta­ble has won the prize three times since 1999, while de­spite not hav­ing won the race since 1996 the Sir Michael Stoute team are another to have on your radar with three past vic­to­ries un­der their belt.

Good luck and have a great month!

Key Ebor Hand­i­cap 15-year Bet­ting Trends

15/15 – Car­ried 9-4 or less 14/15 – Aged 6 or younger 12/15 – Won from a dou­ble-fig­ure stall 12/15 – Had won over at least 1m4f be­fore 11/15 – Aged ei­ther 4 or 5 years old 11/15 – Car­ried 9-1 or less

10/15 – Win­ning Dis­tance - 1lngth or less 9/15 – Had three or more runs al­ready that sea­son 8/15 – Un­placed favourites 6/15 – Had run atYork be­fore 5/15 – Ran at As­cot last time out 5/15 – Won last time out 4/15 – Ran at Good­wood last time out 3/15 – Ran at Gal­way last time out 2/15 – Rid­den by Jamie Spencer 2/15 – Trained by Luca Cu­mani 2/15 – Placed horses from stall 1 (third 2011, third 2013) 1/15 – Win­ning favourites Just one win­ning favourite since 1999 Luca Cu­mani has won the race in 1999, 2004 & 2007 Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 1980, 1991 & 1996 The av­er­age win­ning SP in the last 15 years is 22/1

Past Bet­fred EborWin­ners

2016 – Heart­break City (15/2) 2015 – Lit­i­gant (33/1) 2014 – Mu­tual Re­gard (20/1) 2013 – Tiger Cliff (5/1) 2012 – Will­ing Foe (12/1) 2011 – Moyenne Cor­niche (25/1) 2010 – Di­rar (14/1) 2009 – Se­senta (25/1) 2008 – All The Good (25/1) 2007 – Pur­ple Moon (7/2 fav) 2006 – Mu­dawin (100/1) 2005 – Sergeant Ce­cil (11/1) 2004 – Mephisto (6/1) 2003 – Saint Alebe (20/1) 2002 – Hugs Dancer (25/1)

Note: 2008 re­newal at New­bury over 1m3f

Heart­break City won the Bet­fair Ebor Hand­i­cap at 15/2 last year

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