POINT BY POINT, HER BLUEPRINT TO FREE US ALL FROM BRUSSELS
THERESA May delighted Eurosceptics yesterday with an ambitious road map for Brexit. The PM extended the hand of friendship to the EU but threatened to walk away if Brussels tried to impose a punitive deal. JACK DOYLE sets out her 12 objectives and analyses her chances of success.
1. CERTAINTY
WHAT SHE SAID: We will provide certainty where we can. The same rules and laws will apply on the day after Brexit as they did before. And the Government will put the final deal to a vote in both Houses of Parliament. CAN SHE DELIVER? By keeping in place – at least initially – all EU laws, Mrs May will provide a degree of continuity and confidence for business. However, as she freely admits, she cannot control the outcome of the negotiations. Parliament is highly likely to approve any deal because the alternative will be a chaotic Brexit. DEAL OR NO DEAL? 3/5
2. OUR OWN LAWS
WHAT SHE SAID: We will take back control of our laws and bring an end to the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice in Britain. Because we will not have truly left the EU if we are not in control of our own laws. CAN SHE DELIVER? Adopting the ‘take back control’ slogan of the Leave campaign, Mrs May repeated her promise to end rule by EU law and judges in Luxembourg, and restore power to Parliament and domestic courts. Without this there is no Brexit. A firm red line. DEAL OR NO DEAL? 5/5
3. A UNITED KINGDOM
WHAT SHE SAID: A stronger Britain demands that we strengthen the precious union between the four nations of the UK. CAN SHE DELIVER? By consulting devolved administrations, Mrs May is seeking to reassure voters in the nations of the UK which didn’t vote for Brexit that she is listening to their concerns, and avoid Nicola Sturgeon calling for a second independence vote. DEAL OR NO DEAL? 3/5
4. THE IRISH BORDER
WHAT SHE SAID: We will work to deliver a practical solution that allows the maintenance of the Common Travel Area with the Republic, while protecting the integrity of the United Kingdom’s immigration system. CAN SHE DELIVER? Both countries want to maintain the open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic without opening a back door into Britain. Likely to mean UK border checks at Irish ports and airports DEAL OR NO DEAL? 3/5
5. CONTROL OF IMMIGRATION
WHAT SHE SAID: The message from the public before and during the referendum campaign was clear: Brexit must mean control of the number of people who come to Britain from Europe. And that is what we will deliver. CAN SHE DELIVER? Ending free movement is a red line, but Mrs May left open when it will end, what system will replace it and details of any transition deal. The PM wants highly skilled EU migrants, and doctors and nurses, but will she compromise on unskilled migrants to get a better trade deal? DEAL OR NO DEAL? 5/5
6. EU NATIONALS AND BRITISH EXPATS
WHAT SHE SAID: We want to guarantee the rights of EU citizens who are already living in Britain, and the rights of British nationals in other member states, as early as we can. CAN SHE DELIVER? Likely to be agreed early on, as long as the EU doesn’t want to haggle. Last year Mrs May offered to settle on the rights of three million EU nationals in the UK, and 1.2million Brits on the continent in advance of formal talks - but Angela Merkel refused. DEAL OR NO DEAL? 5/5
7. WORKERS’ RIGHTS
WHAT SHE SAID: Not only will the Government protect the rights of workers’ set out in European legislation, we will build on them. CAN SHE DELIVER? Mrs May is determined to at least preserve protections for workers on low and middle incomes – many of whom voted for Brexit. Could come under threat if there is no deal, and Britain slashes taxes and regulation to attract business. DEAL OR NO DEAL? 3/5
8. TRADE WITH EUROPE
WHAT SHE SAID: As a priority, we will pursue a bold and ambitious free trade agreement with the EU. This should allow for the freest possible trade in goods and services. But I want to be clear. It cannot mean membership of the single market. CAN SHE DELIVER? The crux of the negotiation. Britain will leave the single market, and with it EU laws and free movement. Instead Mrs May wants tariff-free trade and a customs agreement to stop goods being held up at ports. She ruled out ‘vast contributions’ to the EU budget, and the only money going to Brussels will be for particular programmes or agencies like Europol. Her huge gamble is to threaten to walk away if the EU attempts to punish Britain. DEAL OR NO DEAL? 3/5
9. GLOBAL TRADE
WHAT SHE SAID: A global Britain must be free to strike trade agreements with countries from outside the EU too. But I also want tariff-free trade with Europe and cross-border trade there to be as frictionless as possible. CAN SHE DELIVER? Mrs May wants deals with non-EU countries including the US. That would be impossible from inside the customs union, which imposes a uniform tariff on all non-EU countries. It would also make Trade Secretary Liam Fox’s job redundant. DEAL OR NO DEAL? 4/5
10. SCIENCE AND INNOVATION
WHAT SHE SAID: We have a proud history of leading and supporting cutting-edge research and innovation. So we will also welcome agreement to continue to collaborate with our European partners on major science, research, and technology initiatives. CAN SHE DELIVER? Unlikely to be an obstacle to any deal. Much collaboration between academics takes place outside formal EU structures, and so will continue unimpeded. DEAL OR NO DEAL? 5/5
11. CRIME AND TERRORISM
WHAT SHE SAID All of us in Europe face the challenge of cross-border crime, a deadly terrorist threat, and the dangers presented by hostile states. All of us share interests and values in common, values we want to see projected around the world. CAN SHE DELIVER? Security and intelligence cooperation and defence cooperation cannot be a formal bargaining chip, but without making it one, Mrs May reminds EU allies of Britain’s importance as an ally in fighting terrorism and important status as a military power. DEAL OR NO DEAL? 5/5
12. A SMOOTH EXIT
WHAT SHE SAID: It is in no one’s interests for there to be a cliff-edge for business or a threat to stability, as we change from our existing relationship to a new partnership with the European Union. CAN SHE DELIVER? Mrs May wants transitional arrangements to smooth the process of leaving the EU with specific deals on budget contributions, immigration, trade and customs lasting different periods of time. Securing this as well as securing a final deal within two years is a huge task. DEAL OR NO DEAL? 3/5