IS attack on UK a ‘matter of time’, says expert

But ‘dirty bomb’ type chemical/nuclear attack is ‘very unlikely’, according to professor

From 9/11 to 7/7, from Mumbai to the recent attacks in France, barely a day goes by without news reports of another shocking terrorist incident somewhere around the world.

Despite the rhetoric of politicians and the revulsion of ordinary people across the planet, one of the world’s foremost experts on terrorism has told The Courier that terrorism will always be with us in some form – and he believes it is “only a matter of time” before so-called Islamic State (IS) launches a serious strike in the UK.

Professor Richard English – pro-vicechancellor for internationalisation and engagement at Queen’s University Belfast, and an honorary professor at St Andrews University – will discuss the issues during a lecture at Dundee Literary Festival today.

The event, which aims to stir up “constructive debate and dialogue”, will see him in conversation with Dundee University’s Professor Jim Livesey and trying to answer the question ‘Does Terrorism Work?

“My research suggests that terrorism turns out to be much like many other areas of human activity, in that full strategic success is less common than more partial strategic success, and in that tactical effectiveness – with particular operations going well, or the gaining of publicity – is more common still,” Prof English said.

“In other words, terrorists rarely get the outcomes that they most want, often because the states they oppose are as determined as they are, and often because terrorist violence is counterproductive in terms of popular opinion,” he added.

Born in Belfast, Prof English became interested in the IRA as a student.

His interest in terrorism developed from there.

Prof English says terrorists tend to see themselves as pursuing a vital cause unachievable by any means other than violence. Therefore, they reason, terrorist acts are justified.

“Many people will feel that resistance against the Nazis was a justified cause for terrorism,” he said.

“But even here, the outcomes tended to be far from those sought by many of the perpetrators.”

Jihadist groups like al Qaida and IS have found that violence against civilians – especially Muslim civilians – has limited their appeal among the vast majority of the world’s Muslims.

Yet the professor feels a serious IS attack in the UK is “almost certainly” inevitable – although a ‘dirty bomb’ type chemical/nuclear attack in the UK is “very unlikely”.

Does Terrorism Work? by Prof Richard English is at the Bonar Hall, Dundee, at noon.

For more information, please go to literarydundee.co.uk.

Hill. Picture: Elaine Prof Richard English addresses the issue of whether terrorism works.