‘Unprecedented austerity’ ahead, warn Scotland’s pro-Union parties

The SNP’s independence plan would force a decade of “unprecedented austerity” on Scots, say Holyrood’s pro-Union parties.

The Scottish Conservatives claim the nationalists’ own sums for reducing the deficit reveal savings to public services of up to £27 billion would be required over 10 years.

It is proposed by the Growth Commission that Scotland’s budget deficit – the difference between public spending and income – is reduced from the 5.9% forecasted at the point of a Yes result to 2.6% a decade later.

Murdo Fraser, the Perthshire-based Tory MSP, said that will lead to massive spending cuts.

“It would be cost felt in every ward, in every classroom and on every street in Scotland. It is austerity on stilts,” Mr Fraser said.

Scottish Labour leader Richard Leonard said the SNP is offering “unprecedented austerity”.

“This was branded the growth commission but it’s really a cuts commission,” he said.

“Proposals to cut Scotland’s deficit by almost two-thirds over a decade would result in a level of austerity that not even George Osborne attempted.”

The SNP’s pro-independence partners in Holyrood criticised the report for focusing on increasing GDP.

Patrick Harvie, co-convener of the Scottish Greens, said it is “disappointing” the Scottish Government has “obsessed about simplistic measures like GDP growth”.

Nicola Sturgeon said: “What this report shows is that Scotland is a wealthy nation with huge resources, encompassing our traditional strengths in innovation, our hi-tech sectors, our energy reserves, our food, drink and tourism strengths – and perhaps above all our strength in human capital, with a highly-educated population.”

It would be cost felt in every ward, in every classroom and on every street in Scotland. It is austerity on stilts. MURDO FRASER MSP

Nicola Sturgeon is damned if she does and damned if she doesn’t.

Ramping up her independence push for a referendum in the short term may go against her gradualist instincts, but is vital in keeping her party together and the increasingly disparate Yes movement on side. Failing to seize the gift of Brexit would be unforgiveable in many of her supporters’ eyes.

But it could also accelerate the drop in the party’s fortunes from last year’s general election, when the first minister put Indyref2 at the heart of the campaign.

Losing another referendum would be catastrophic not just for Ms Sturgeon’s career and legacy but for the independence cause.

The SNP leader’s updated case for secession has to strike the right balance between optimism and realism.

The Growth Commission report is certainly ambitious, promising surging economic growth from emulating countries like Denmark and New Zealand and rapid progress in reducing the deficit. It also does not shy away from the challenges, despite the impact that could have on the arguments it is advancing.

The 354-page document is a forensic and sober body of work and confronts the daunting realities of secession.

This marks it out from the 2014 white paper, which relied on oil revenues holding up and swerved some of the most difficult questions facing the cause.

The commission report turns much of the white paper and the 2014 case on its head. A currency union is ditched, with a Scottish pound in the offing when the time is right.

Oil revenues are ignored in the analysis, apart from as a contributor to a bonus fund. Corporation taxes won’t be raised above the UK level, while government borrowing will be kept to a minimum.

These commission findings are based on hard-nosed centre-right economics. It will be interesting to see how that will go down with the SNP’s core left-wing support, who are already being wooed by Jeremy Corbyn’s socialism.

This independence masterplan will add fuel to the debate within the Yes movement. The real question is whether the wider public have the same appetite.