An unstable Libya is breeding extremism
The Manchester attacker’s Libyan links will re-open the debate about how to manage the country
The threat of ungoverned space has once again become all too real. Details about the Manchester attacker, his recent visit to Libya, and his possible associates are still emerging and we should not speculate too far beyond what we actually know. But it seems highly unlikely that his trip to Libya was purely coincidental.
We do know, however, that even more British citizens were massacred on a beach in Sousse, Tunisia, by a terrorist trained in Libya than died on Monday. The lesson is that violent extremist groups will rush to fill the vacuum of an ungoverned space, from which they will seek to harm both our interests and our children in whichever ways they can.
For most Libyans, 2011 was meant to be the year of their emancipation from Gaddafi’s dictatorship. Their story since has been one of painful battles with their fellow citizens, while confronting Gaddafi’s legacy, competing external interests, and violent extremists. The hostilities of 2011 were just the start of a conflict that descended into a multi-front civil war.
The hopes of the revolution were not inevitably doomed to be disappointed. But the failure to incorporate the many armed groups that emerged to depose Gaddafi into state security forces led to the militia-fication of the country. In this security vacuum, all other problems became increasingly unmanageable and the window of opportunity to create a democratic culture or an institutional base capable of managing the divisions of Libyan society was missed. It is a matter of contention whether this was a Libyan failure or one of the international community. It is undeniable that it is now a problem for all of us.
By 2014, parallel administrations had emerged, fighting for the right to govern Libya, while neglecting its governance. In what was previously a rentier state with massive oil reserves, economic and humanitarian crises have now brought despair to many. In the vast expanse of the Libyan desert, gangs seized the chance to smuggle desperate people in unspeakable conditions from sub-saharan Africa to Europe. It is in this unadministered territory, too, that local authorities and western intelligence agencies struggle to identify, let alone control, extremists who seek the space to advance their medieval nihilism and to transfer expert and deadly knowledge to those seeking to harm us.
The Manchester attacker’s links to Libya will re-open elements of the debate about how to manage the country. There are no simple answers. But the challenge becomes infinitely harder if individual nations put their own interests ahead of the collective imperative of getting this territory back under some form of civilised administrative order. For all of our interests in Libya are so much more difficult to advance without a stable central government, and this can only be sustainable through a political settlement that includes all of the country’s principal competing groups.
As one who has been critical of many aspects of the UK’S role in Libya, I believe that the Government’s recent engagement deserves credit, not least the efforts of our fantastic ambassador, Peter Millett. Despite dark and pessimistic moments warranting despair, the Government has remained committed to delivering an inclusive political process to bring about a sustainable political resolution. Only three weeks ago the Foreign Secretary was devoting time and energy in support of a possible diplomatic breakthrough.
As we struggle to come to terms with this week’s horrific attack, the calls may increase for the Government to attempt short cuts by backing a strong man to bring stability to Libya. But “picking a winner” would only bring more destruction, drive more young people towards radicalisation and start the whole sorry cycle of dictatorship, revolution and collapse all over again, even if the reinvigorated civil war concluded in “our” dictator winning out. Our resolve to support an inclusive political process should be reaffirmed, and we should have no role in sowing the seeds for a return of military dictatorship to Libya.
But we are not limited to diplomatic measures. As formally unacknowledged, but widely reported, UK special forces have directly assisted in combating Isil, notably in the battle of Sirte. We must continue to be prepared to take military action against the most radical groups who directly threaten our citizens, while recognising that Libyans deserve governance that can accommodate the principal interests in their society and deliver the stability we and they want and need.