A friendly chat on the sofa as South Africa plays kingmaker
IT LOOKED more like an informal chat about regional trade than a meeting to lay the groundwork for the once-in-ageneration political change sweeping Zimbabwe.
A group of mostly men in dark suits sat on cream leather couches and armchairs around a table laid with a modest floral arrangement.
The dozen or so attendees appeared relaxed, with legs crossed or hands folded on their laps. A decorative box of tissues sat innocuously on a side table.
On Tuesday morning, few would have predicted that Zimbabwe’s military would seize power later that night, plunging the southern African nation into crisis.
Even fewer would have predicted that two days after that, Robert Mugabe and the man who led the takeover, Constantino Chiwenga, Zimbabwe’s military chief, would be shaking hands and smiling for cameras at the State House in Harare as they negotiated the end of Mr Mugabe’s 37-year rule.
In a series of extraordinary photographs published on the website of Zimbabwe’s state-run Herald newspaper, yesterday’s negotiations over what happens next in Zimbabwe looked remarkably polite, despite reports that Mr Mugabe, 93, was refusing to step down during the talks.
The stakes were high for everyone in the room. Sydney Sekeramayi, the Zimbabwe defence minister, sat to the embattled leader’s left.
To his right, two South African ministers dispatched hastily by President Jacob Zuma looked on, along with Mr Chiwenga and Father Fidelis Mukonori, a priest who has been mediating between Mr Mugabe and the military.
Notably absent was Mr Mugabe’s wife, Grace, whose fast rise through the ranks of Zanu-pf culminated in last week’s removal of Emmerson Mnangagwa, the vice-president, a move seen as clearing the way for her to succeed her husband but which ultimately prompted the military takeover.
South Africa’s role in the negotiations will be under close scrutiny.
On Wednesday, Mr Zuma announced that South Africa, in its role as chair of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), was sending Bongani Bongo, its security minister, and Nosiviwe Mapisa-nqakula, its defence minister, as special envoys to help solve the impasse between Mr Mugabe and the military.
The envoys’ brief was not clear. On one hand, South Africa has deep ties with Mr Mugabe going back to both countries’ liberation struggles, and it would be complicated for Pretoria and other SADC governments to tell him to give up power.
On the other hand, Mr Mugabe “has been a problem for a long time and South Africa has struggled to manage him”, according to Peter Fabricius, a consultant for South Africa’s Institute for Security Studies.
“If this has got rid of him and there aren’t huge repercussions, then it might be quite useful to the South Africans.”
Finding a rapid solution will be crucial for Mr Zuma. Having Zimbabwe’s military remain in control of the country for any protracted period would not only be destabilising for the region, but also reflect poorly on South Africa’s ability to influence its neighbours, said Charles Laurie, head of country risk at Verisk Maplecroft.
If Zimbabwe’s security further deteriorates and its economy crashes again, as it did in 2008, South Africa faces another potential wave of economic refugees heading across its border.
South Africa is already home to a large Zimbabwean population that has been the target of rising xenophobic sentiment as unemployment has risen in South Africa.
“A chaotic state of affairs in Zimbabwe will reflect badly on Zuma’s beleaguered leadership,” said Mr Laurie. “What South Africa wants to do is to end the military rule in Zimbabwe and have a legitimate leader at the helm.
“That person is almost certainly Emmerson Mnangagwa.”
But installing Mr Mnangagwa could be a risky course of action.
“If you install the vice president, you are playing into the Zanu-pf internal squabble,” says Ralph Mathekga, a political analyst in South Africa.
“Mnangagwa will have ascended without a civilian mandate. It will be saying Zanu-pf can do whatever it likes.”