A Budget to take to Britain’s doorsteps

Hammond has won over many backbench critics by giving them ammunition to woo their constituents

Conservative backbenchers will have gathered in the Commons Chamber with a higher degree of trepidation than usual for the Budget. They knew that it would set the tone for the new Government, particularly as the General Election manifesto had to be quickly shredded. For Mr Hammond, who had a fairly disastrous first Budget and is an unpopular figure with colleagues, including the Prime Minister, the sack beckoned.

With the stakes high, he delivered a confident and competent speech, with notable flickers of humour. His demeanour was not that of a man whose previous efforts had unravelled and was now in the last chance saloon. Admittedly, he did little to deliver a long-term vision for the Government that will sustain it through what promises to be a difficult Parliament, but he did deal with a number of the day-to-day political issues that have been dogging the Government. It was a Budget that won’t have saved the country economically, but will have saved the Chancellor to fight another day and probably bought a traumatised and weakened Tory party a bit of breathing space.

The man rightly categorised as having a tin ear has obviously been listening to his colleagues. In the opening of his speech, and elsewhere too, there were carefully crafted nods to his previous negativity, particularly his failure to be uplifting about the opportunities of Brexit. This was now the Chancellor “running towards change” and preparing for all eventualities and opportunities on Brexit. It was calibrated to win over sceptical backbenchers and make a decisive break with his Eeyore image.

Although it wasn’t an apology, it was a sign he had finally understood it was he that had to change his ways, not the parliamentary party. But Conservative backbenchers will base their final judgment of this Budget on whether it gives them something to say on the doorsteps after months of confusion and defensiveness. First impressions suggest it will. He gave his side hope that new economic fronts can be opened against the Labour Party on industrial strategy, particularly global and technological change.

Then there was more money for the health service, the opportunity to increase nurses pay, lower travel costs for under 30s, more money for teacher training and maths schools, sweeping away stamp duty for first time buyers, increasing the National Living Wage, raising tax bands and sorting out problems with Universal Credit. These are a set of policies that are reasonably saleable to voters, and early un-whipped reactions from previous welfare rebels such as Stephen Mcpartland, Johnny Mercer and Jeremy Lefroy suggest the Chancellor has pulled it off. With so many Conservative MPS in marginal seats, delivering a decent set of doorstep policies will build Hammond a large measure of goodwill.

The Budget also made clear who wears the trousers in Downing Street – and it’s not the Chancellor. There have been times in the past five months where one wondered whether there was any discipline in Government. But this Budget looked largely like a No 10 wish list – a £40 billion plus housing package, £12.5 billion for the NHS and a £1.5 billion fix for Universal Credit

– a sign that Theresa May’s grip may be returning. Big spending decisions at a time of weak public finances; not usually something associated with “Spreadsheet Phil”. But when isolated in your party and with one failed Budget behind you, a tactical retreat is a sensible career-lengthening move.

There will be criticism that the Chancellor didn’t go far enough, that his plans weren’t game-changing for the country or the party. It’s true that the housing policies are confused, the NHS didn’t get the money Simon Stevens demanded, and there is still no coherent policy offering for young professional people. While there are now policies to sell and respond with on the doorstep, there is no vision that ties it all together. There was no echo of the Prime Minister’s previous messages about “burning injustices” and “just about managing” or the “British dream”. It is in the message, not the policy, that a party’s values are communicated – and to win an election and save those many Conservative marginal seats, there is still much work to be done.