Many Brexit hurdles still to be negotiated
The stand-off with Russia over the Salisbury poisoning outrage has distracted political attention from the subject that has preoccupied national debate for almost two years: Brexit. This week sees another milestone on the road to the UK’S departure with a summit in Brussels to agree a transition period to remove any immediate risks of cliff-edge events that would unduly alarm businesses and the City.
The idea of a transition was proposed by the UK and, as a result, we have had little leverage during the negotiations. Theresa May effectively agreed the broad outlines of the deal before Christmas and it seems to have changed little. Essentially, the status quo will continue for 21 months after the official date for Brexit next March. To all intents and purposes, our new leaving date is Dec 31, 2020. Efforts to make transition look markedly different from staying in the EU have mostly been rebuffed.
Mrs May wanted EU citizens arriving during transition treated differently from those living here before the supposed Brexit cut-off, but this position has been dropped. Indeed, in her eagerness to get an agreement, most of the concessions appear to have been on the UK’S part, though ministers are likely to emphasise the importance of being able to sign trade deals during transition. But the reality is that no other country is going to want to reach an agreement with the UK until they know what our future trading relationship will be with the EU. The Government will also need something in the text to assuage those Tory Brexiteers who fear transition makes the UK a vassal state.
Even though the British people took a momentous decision in 2016 to break with the EU, the Government’s aim ever since has been to make the ongoing relationship as seamless as possible. Transition is only necessary because Britain (and the EU) were not prepared for the shocks of Brexit caused by the fiendishly complex web of treaty obligations that have to be unravelled.
Nowhere is this more apparent than in Ireland where a succession of seemingly contradictory promises by the UK about the border has made reaching an agreement that is satisfactory to all sides hard to achieve. Since the Irish question is tied up with the withdrawal agreement – and the EU has previously said that transition is dependent upon that being settled – there are still many hurdles to be negotiated.