The Daily Telegraph

Marcus Armytage

I Just Know can beat his rivals – and the mud

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IJust Know, an improving eight-year-old who fits many of the criteria required to win the world’s greatest steeplecha­se, can provide Sue and Harvey Smith with a second Randox Health Grand National at Aintree today.

The 171st Grand National looks as open an edition as there has been for a while and the list of possible winners is longer than the list of no-hopers. The key to the race, however, looks like being the ground, which, after yesterday’s unexpected rainfall, will be testing.

The first effect that rain had was the withdrawal yesterday morning of top weight Minella Rocco, Vincente and Beeves, all good-ground horses, which means Thunder And Roses, Delusion of grandeur and the progressiv­e Walk In The Mill, the mount of Aintree’s amateur specialist Sam Waley-cohen, make the cut.

So while the ground may not be quite heavy enough for one of those old-fashioned 11-minute Nationals in which you could really fancy Raz De Maree or Milansbar, it will, in theory, be testing enough to make weight a stopper for Aintree stalwarts Blaklion and The Last Samuri. I also expect it to hamper the horse that, purely on a cold-hearted study of the form, stands out; the Gold Cup third Anibale Fly.

I do not concur with the theory that Blaklion did not stay last year, he just went on too far out. When he landed clear of the field three out I was almost headed for the press room to start writing my copy. Had he not stayed he would have stopped to nothing up the run-in once reeled in at the last fence, as Gas Line Boy appeared to do finishing behind him in fifth.

But Blaklion plugged on gamely and he should go very close to giving Nigel Twiston-davies a third and – with son Sam Twiston-davies in the saddle – most emotional victory. The jockey, however, will no doubt be told to count to 30, the number of fences, before launching his final push, and a repetition of his Becher Chase win in December would make him very attractive. However, to win will require a weight-carrying performanc­e the equal of the top-class 2015 winner Many Clouds.

Anibale Fly appears the pick of the JP Mcmanus-owned quartet and his staying-on third behind Native River and Thursday’s winner Might Bite means Tony Martin’s gelding is the form pick.

He handled the hurly-burly of a big field when winning the Paddy Power at Christmas. Though officially well in, 11st 8lb makes him vulnerable to something lower down the field, even though weight is less important than it was a decade ago.

The other highly-fancied Irish runner is Total Recall. He took a heavy fall at the third-last in the Gold Cup while still in contention, which is not ideal, and he is small. Often that can mean athletic, but I prefer a bit of size for Aintree.

Tiger Roll and Chase The Spud are others proven over a long distance on testing ground. Like Gordon Elliott’s first winner Silver Birch, Tiger Roll comes from the cross-country scene, but he is apt to take liberties with fences and Davy Russell will need to let him

know that he can only flick the spruce off the top of Liverpool’s most famous landmarks, rather than clearing them out.

Chase The Spud won last year’s Midlands National and his owners, the Ruckers, rarely see their colours out of the first four here, but Fergal O’brien needs to have turned him round after the horse pulled up on his last two starts.

The prospect of life imitating art and a triumphant female jockey making Enid Bagnold’s National

Velvet, published in 1935, more of a prophecy than a novel should not be ruled out. A female will ride the winner of this race before we have a female champion jockey or female Derby winner.

Trainer Mouse Morris says that if Rachael Blackmore’s mount Alpha Des Obeaux is still there heading out on the second circuit he will run a huge race. If Bryony Frost can get Milansbar into a rhythm up front then we know, at least, he stays.

Much has been made of the fact that Katie Walsh and the grey mare Baie Des Iles have numerous statistics to overcome – female jockeys, greys and mares – but so often the outcome of this race is written in the stars rather than the Form Book. Walsh’s husband, Ross O’sullivan, trains the mare and a repeat of the pair’s Punchestow­n National Trial 13 months ago would see them go close.

So that brings us back to I Just Know. The winner of four of his 10 starts over fences, including the North Yorkshire Grand National on soft at Catterick in January, the only question is whether it could be a year too soon for him.

But, like most of former show jumper Harvey Smith’s horses, he seems a good jumper and has won over 3½ miles, so should get the trip, and has been trained for the race in Yorkshire.

Danny Cook, his jockey, is owed some good fortune round Aintree and he will hope that, for once at the course, Lady Luck chooses to ride pillion with him.

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 ??  ?? Making the running: I Just Know (below) ticks all the boxes to be a National winner, but is it a year too soon?
Making the running: I Just Know (below) ticks all the boxes to be a National winner, but is it a year too soon?
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 ??  ?? Under orders: Hearts will be pumping as the field lines up at 5.15 this afternoon
Under orders: Hearts will be pumping as the field lines up at 5.15 this afternoon

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