Glacier’s collapse in South Pole may leave UK coastal towns submerged
‘What happens in the Antarctic doesn’t stay in the Antarctic. Thwaites has the potential to affect sea levels worldwide’
AN ANTARCTIC glacier the size of Britain is threatening to submerge UK coastal towns by collapsing into the ocean and raising sea levels, according to scientists.
British and American experts are launching the largest joint mission for more than 70 years to investigate how long the 113,000 square-mile Thwaites Glacier can last in its current form.
A fleet of research ships, submarines and aircraft and more than 80 scientists will be dispatched to the remote West Antarctic region later this year following warnings that the ice structure could collapse within decades.
Glaciologists predict the collapse of both Thwaites and the nearby Pine Island Glacier, two of the largest and fastest retreating on the continent, could cause sea levels to rise by more than a metre.
This, in turn, could trigger the collapse of the entire West Antarctic Ice Sheet, resulting in ocean rises of more than three metres.
Climate models indicate that a onemetre rise would significantly increase the frequency of devastating storm surges, such as those that hit the UK’S eastern coastal towns in 2013.
However, a rise of two or more metres may cause permanent changes to Britain’s coastline with Hull, Peterborough, Portsmouth and parts of east London and the Thames Estuary at risk of becoming submerged.
Yesterday, leaders of the project, which comprises the UK’S Natural Environment Research and the US National Science Foundation (NSF), said there were “reasons to suspect” that a Thwaites ice retreat, once started, would be irreversible.
Scott Borg, NSF deputy assistant director for geosciences, said: “What happens in the Antarctic doesn’t stay in the Antarctic. Thwaites has the potential to affect sea levels worldwide. “Humanity cannot afford to wait.” The five-year project will comprise eight distinct research objectives. It will be one of the biggest Antarctic field missions ever launched.
At nearly 1,000 miles from the nearest permanent base, the glacier is one of the most challenging environments on the continent. The team will need to move more than 200 tons of scientific equipment into place in order to investigate the stability of the ice. The scientists will use unmanned submarines to examine the underside of the glacier – including, in the latter stages, the Auto- sub Long Range-class Boaty Mcboatface. They will also enlist the help of seals, which will be fitted with head-worn sensors.
David Vaughan, director of science at the British Antarctic Survey, said: “We’re going to be pushing the field season to the limit of the time you can spend in Antarctica to make the most of the opportunity.”
Sea levels are rising by 3.2 mm a year and some scientists believe that, at a conservative estimate, oceans may have risen by approximately 30cm by 2100 compared to 2000. But others predict that, mainly due to climate change, the world should brace for rises of 1.5 or even two metres.
“It’s not an emergency this year, but I’m very pleased we’re doing it this decade because we can’t wait too long,” said Prof Vaughan.
Thwaites Glacier is already showing signs of instability. Around 50billion tons of ice is draining into the ocean, accounting for around four per cent of global sea-level rise, an amount that has doubled since the mid-1990s.
Sam Gyimah, the science minister, said: “Rising sea levels are a globally important issue which cannot be tackled by one country alone. The Thwaites Glacier already contributes to rising sea levels, and understanding its likely collapse in the coming century is vitally important.”