Saxon Warrior can prove he has superstar status

Only lack of stamina can stop odds-on favourite Knight To Behold is best chance to cause upset

Saxon Warrior, Aidan O’brien’s son of Deep Impact, is either the second coming, on track to become the first Triple Crown winner since Nijinsky 48 years ago – or, he does not stay a mile and a half.

Three odds-on shots, Sir Ivor, Shergar and Camelot, have won the Derby since 1946 but, until the rains came earlier this week, rarely had a horse carried such confidence going into the race in the post-war era. He drifted in betting on Thursday but last night, after a dry day, the 2,000 Guineas winner was back to odds-on for the 239th Investec Derby at Epsom today.

Unbeaten and a Classic winner already, having swatted aside the best milers of his generation in the

2,000 Guineas with a powerful, raking stride, at

4.30pm Saxon

Warrior (right) will stand in the starting stalls aiming for greatness.

He is a magnificently constructed beast and a spectacular mover. He weighed 35kg (5st 7lb) more before the 2,000 Guineas than he did before the Racing Post Trophy last October, which is a massive amount of winter growth.

Normally you would expect a mature two-year-old colt to be roughly the same weight at the end of its juvenile career as at the start of its Classic year.

So what can beat him? Well it is a horse race and although he is trained at Ballydoyle, the yard does not always have a handle of the pecking order of its horses in any particular race.

Is he a miler? Deep Impact looks a good influence for stamina but Saxon Warrior’s dam, Maybe, was a miler and her dam, Sumora, was a five-furlong Listed winner. If connections are already talking Triple Crowns they clearly believe he will get a mile and a half.

It looks a strong Derby, though, and all the trial winners have turned up. Saxon Warrior has twice beaten Roaring Lion, attempting to become the first grey to win since 1946, but John Gosden’s colt finally found his mojo in the Dante. His jockey, Oisin Murphy, will go out thinking he can make it third time lucky against the favourite. Pedigree experts will tell you he will not stay, but despite the

Dante Stakes at York ending up as something of a sprint, Murphy was halfway down the back straight before he could pull him up, suggesting Roaring Lion was nowhere near empty.

Chester Vase winner Young Rascal took a huge step forward from Newbury in April to Chester in May and if he is still on the same trajectory he would be right in the mix. He has a bit of a high knee action so the cut in the ground will be a help rather than hindrance. Trainer William Haggas does not bring horses to the Derby for the air.

Hazapour won the Derrinstown Stud Stakes, beating two race-fit Ballydoyle colts, although Delano Roosevelt was staying on strongly behind him at the finish. If Saxon Warrior is to be undone by ‘friendly fire’ then Delano Roosevelt looks the one.

Godolphin’s hopes of lifting its Derby jinx rest with Masar, who was spectacular in the Craven Stakes in the spring. If he did not take a step back next time out in the Guineas, when third, then he stood still and one wonders if the advantage of a Dubai winter wears off after one run. However, he may improve for this trip.

If there is to be an upset, I believe Harry Dunlop’s Knight To Behold, the Lingfield trial winner, can provide it. Do not be fooled by the fact that Dunlop’s entire 40-horse string would probably not even constitute first lot for any of today’s rival trainers – he will have been thinking about getting one ready for the Derby since he was at prep school.

Knight To Behold will come on for that run, he clearly has tactical speed, a high cruising gear and stamina. Like the trainer, whose father won the race twice, he is bred for the job.

He can go forward or sit in behind and in jockey Richard Kingscote he has the help of a great judge of pace. Kingscote just needs to be brave and, with Ballydoyle pacemakers out to confuse the issue, be his own man.