Supersize classes ‘will be new normal’ in next decade

SUPERSIZE classes could become commonplace, it is feared, as figures show that the secondary school population is set to swell to 3.3million in a decade.

The rise is fuelled by a baby boom in the early 2000s, as well as a high birth rate among women from immigrant communities. The bulge in the population of children has been making its way through the school system.

Secondary pupil numbers are expected to rise by 14.7 per cent in the next 10 years, meaning there will be another 418,000 children in secondary schools by 2027, according to the Department for Education (DFE).

The official forecast will spark fresh concern about increased class sizes and the squeeze on school places. Prof Alan Smithers, director of the centre for education and employment research at Buckingham University, said that the “explosion” in the secondary school population meant that class sizes would “almost certainly” rise.

“It couldn’t have been a surprise [to officials] as they have seen the numbers in primary schools,” he said, adding that the squeeze on school places would be felt more acutely in inner city areas than rural communities.

“Population isn’t spread evenly throughout the country and people of different ethnic backgrounds tend to cluster with each other,” he said. “Many of the most-affected areas will be the inner cities where lots of the new arrivals to the country have settled, with large families that will greatly increase demands on schools.”

The Dfe’s forecast said the increase in school pupil population was “largely driven by an increase in the birth rate rather than direct immigration”.

It went on: “However, that birth rate is in turn affected by any increase in the number of children born to non-uk born women.”