Polls show Chequers agreement has bruised the Tories

Eight polls about Brexit have been conducted since the Cabinet gathered at Chequers on July 6. Both the statement about Brexit that was issued at the end of that meeting and the White Paper published the subsequent Thursday have received a critical response, not least among Leavers. But how has the public reacted? Here are four key points that now seem clear.

1. The Chequers agreement is unpopular among Leavers

Headline numbers on attitudes to Chequers are, at first glance, not that bad for the Government. In a poll just after the Chequers meeting, Survation found more people approved (33pc) than disapproved of the agreement (23pc), while Opinium found as many approved (32pc) as disapproved (32pc). But the polls have consistently said the deal is less popular among Leavers than Remainers. Only 30pc of Leavers told Survation they approved, compared with 39pc of Remainers.

In Opinium’s poll the deal had an approval rating of +17 among Remainers but -18 among Leavers. Yougov found while 42pc of Remainers would be unhappy if the agreement went ahead, 54pc of Leavers were of that view.

Perhaps the biggest problem for the Government is many Leavers do not think the agreement is what Britain voted for. Yougov found that as many as 58pc of Leavers hold that view (compared with 27pc Remain).

Similarly, Survation reported that 49pc of Leavers do not believe the agreement is “faithful” to the referendum result (compared with 30pc of Remainers). Deltapoll found as many as 37pc of Leavers thought the agreement was a “betrayal” of the result, with 29pc regarding it as “illthought out” or a “compromise”.

2. The Chequers agreement has undermined confidence in the Government’s handling of Brexit – especially among Leavers

All three polls reported a sharp decline in voter evaluations of the handling of Brexit since Chequers. ORB reports that 71pc disapprove, up from 64pc a month ago. Similarly, Opinium finds 56pc disapprove, compared with 45pc a month ago. Yougov found 75pc think the Government is doing badly, where a week before the figure was 64pc.

This drop in confidence has occurred mostly among Leave.

Opinium’s net approval of the Prime Minister’s performance among Remainers held steady; it was -28 last month and now stands at -30. But

‘The problem for the Government is that many Leavers have decided the agreement fails their expectations’

among Leavers net approval dropped from +1 last month to -31. Similarly, Yougov says the Government’s score among Remainers stood at -63 at the start of July but fell to -72. Among Leavers, however, the drop is -27 to -60.

Figures from Kantar and Survation confirm that Leavers, hitherto less critical of the Government’s handling, are now as critical as Remainers. 3. Chequers has undermined the association in voters’ minds between the Conservatives and a hard Brexit. There was a tendency to associate the Conservative party with a hard Brexit. In May and June Opinium found twice as many voters felt the priority was ending free movement rather than staying in the single market.

Now, however, almost as many voters think the priority is to stay in the single market (27pc) as it is to end free movement (29pc). This is marked among Leavers – and given their predominance in Tory ranks, also among those who voted for them in 2017. A plurality of both groups now think that the Conservative priority is to stay in the single market – by 32pc to 25pc among Leavers and 35pc to 27pc among 2017 Conservatives.

Yougov is now finding that 69pc of voters think the party’s stance on Brexit is “unclear or confusing”, up from 58pc a month ago. The increase is noticeable (18 points) among Leavers. 4. Voters have not changed their minds about the merits of Remain v Leave or a hard v soft Brexit. There is no evidence to show the Chequers agreement has persuaded Remainers that Brexit will not be so bad or that it has dissuaded Leavers of the merits of leaving. Deltapoll now have Remain and Leave in a dead heat when last month Remain were six points ahead. But Survation reported a four-point lead for Remain. And at 46pc, the proportion of voters who told Yougov in both post-chequers polls that in hindsight the Brexit vote was wrong is the same as it was before.

Although ORB reported a five-point increase in those who disagreed that greater control over immigration was more important than free trade access with the EU, Opinium found the difference the same as last month. Equally, Opinium found voters evenly divided on the issue of whether Britain should be attempting to stay in or leave the customs union. Implications

It seems voters have been evaluating Chequers by asking how well it matches their preferences, rather than ask if it gives them reason to revaluate. The Government’s problem is that many Leavers appear to have decided that the deal fails their expectations.

As a result, it is in effect being disowned by the very voters whose electoral instructions the Government is meant to be implementing. And Mrs May is getting little credit from Remainers for a softer stance than they might once have anticipated.

Meanwhile, bear in mind that the 2017 election left the Tories with a mainly pro-leave, pro-hard Brexit electorate. They are, above all, a group that the Conservatives need to keep on board during the Brexit process.

There are signs that Chequers has caused some voters to re-evaluate their support for the party – it is down four points compared with polls before Chequers, enough for the Tories to fall behind Labour. Meanwhile, UKIP, hitherto seemingly dormant, has seen its support double from 3pc to 6pc.

Mrs May is under pressure from Brexiteers outside Parliament, too.