The Guardian Weekly

US faces shortage of options over North Korean missile

All the strategies for reining in Kim Jong-un would carry huge risks

- Emma Graham-Harrison

North Korea successful­ly launched an interconti­nental ballistic missile last week that could one day carry nuclear warheads to the United States, a move that has revived talk of military interventi­on in the state.

Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions, once a somewhat abstract strategic concern for bureaucrat­s in Washington, have suddenly become more pressing. The secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, said earlier this year that all options are on the table for blocking its nuclear weapons programme.

Talk of a “surgical strike” often surfaces when politician­s are contemplat­ing military interventi­on in conflicts or troubled areas around the globe, perhaps because it carries connotatio­ns of a focused, efficient attack, with minimal collateral damage. That is a distractin­g illusion.

There is no option for military interventi­on in North Korea that would not cost civilian lives and carry a high risk of dangerous escalation. The lives most immediatel­y at risk in the case of open conflict are those of South Koreans. Nearly half the population lives within 80km of the demilitari­sed zone that separates the northern and southern halves of the peninsula, according to the New York Times.

North Korea’s missile launch came as the US prepared to mark Independen­ce Day.

Parts of Seoul are within range of rocket-launchers and guns hidden in caves and tunnels along the border. As recently as 2010 North Korean shelling killed two marines and injured civilians. It is possible to intercept artillery shells, rockets and other low-altitude weapons, through systems such as Israel’s Iron Dome, but South Korea has not got any equivalent. If North Korea unleashes these on the south, even the most optimistic estimates say thousands of lives would be lost from attacks on military targets, rising to tens or even hundreds of thousands if Pyongyang aims at civilians.

Kim Jong-un has ballistic missiles that could reach sites across South Korea and Japan, and a stockpile of chemical and nuclear weapons. This arsenal is thought to have been built up as a deterrent, but few think Kim would hesitate to use the weapons if he felt his life or power was in immediate threat. His half-brother was killed using the nerve agent VX in a Malaysian airport earlier this year, he purged his uncle, and reportedly executed a defence chief with antiaircra­ft guns.

The US and its allies cannot count on taking out the North Korean leadership with the type of missile or drone strikes used to pick off Isis fighters. Assassinat­ing leaders of enemy states is notoriousl­y difficult, even with US financial and technical resources. Failed efforts to kill Saddam Hussein in the first weeks of the 2003 Iraq invasion, and decades of botched attempts on Fidel Castro, are reminders of how difficult killing from a distance can be.

Kim and his inner circle are secretive and cautious, and western intelligen­ce systems inside the state are weak. In 2008 analysts were left speculatin­g for months about whether his father, Kim Jong-il, was alive or dead. News that he had suffered a stroke in August only leaked into the outside world in winter.

Perhaps the biggest risk in taking action in North Korea is its unpredicta­bility. Once fighting starts, there would be many reasons for escalation, analyst Anthony Cordesman told the New York Times. Stopping it would be much harder.

 ?? KCNA/Reuters ?? Joy … Kim Jong-un watches the test firing of his interconti­nental ballistic missile
KCNA/Reuters Joy … Kim Jong-un watches the test firing of his interconti­nental ballistic missile

Newspapers in English

Newspapers from United Kingdom