Waldgeist out to re­verse Arc re­sult

The Racing Paper - - Trends And Diary - by John An­thony

IT’S the Breed­ers’ Cup at Churchill Downs to­day with the ac­tion start­ing at 4pm on both At The Races and Rac­ing UK.

There are plenty of good trends to help us pick a few win­ners on what’s ar­guably the best Flat rac­ing day of the year.

We’ll go through the card and let the stats nar­row the fields down. 4.00: Filly and Mare Sprint

Three-year-olds have a shock­ing record in this with four and five-year-olds hav­ing much the best of it.

You need to have been in the first three last time out and a good re­cent run in a Grade 1 race has been a pointer.

That makes MAR­LEY’S FREE­DOM a con­fi­dent choice af­ter her win at Saratoga last time out. 4.38: Turf Sprint

Again a first-three fin­ish last time has been a fac­tor, with all age groups win­ning. A break of four weeks

or more is an­other pos­i­tive. A win over the spe­cial­ist 5.5f trip is some­thing else to look for.

STORMY LIB­ERAL has won over 5f and 6f so has plenty go­ing for him. 5.16: Dirt Mile

Go­ing well in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race last time out is im­por­tant and you want to have run in the past 42 days. That gives out­sider ISOTHERM a de­cent chance of sneak­ing into the frame af­ter a good run at Santa Anita last time out. 6.04: Filly And Mare Turf

This is the first high­light from a Eu­ro­pean per­spec­tive with a cou­ple of trav­ellers go­ing over with high hopes.

A race within the past 45 days or so has been im­por­tant as has a pre­vi­ous Group 1 vic­tory. In­ter­est­ingly, only one Eu­ro­pean win­ner of this scored last time out. The Eu­ro­pean win­ners were all three­year-olds too. The Amer­i­cans have won three of the four run­nings of this at Churchill Downs, although a Eu­ro­pean has

placed each time.

A RAV­ING BEAUTY has a chance of keep­ing the prize at home at what could be re­ward­ing odds. Wild Il­lu­sion looks the pick of the Euro­peans and can main­tain the record of plac­ing in this race at Churchill. 6.46: Sprint

Stick with last-time win­ners so that quickly cuts the field down to just three hope­fuls. A Grade 1 win has been a good pointer too. A grow­ing re­cent trend is for a ris­ing star three-year-old to take this race so that gives PROM­ISES FUL­FILLED a chance at big­ger odds than the other two con­tenders who won last time out. 7.36: Mile

A run within the past six weeks has been a big pointer for this with be­tween four and six starts ear­lier in the cam­paign. Eu­ro­pean chal­lengers need to have won a Group 1 race be­fore. Given that the ground is likely to be soft on the turf course, POLYDREAM looks the one to be on.

She also has the ex­cel­lent

record of Eu­ro­pean three­year-old fil­lies on her side with Hap­pily hav­ing good each-way claims too. 8.16: Distaff

Fin­ish­ing in the top three last time has been im­por­tant and, while older horses have won the past two, be­fore that three and fouryear-olds had won 17 on the trot.

A Grade 1 win­ner is a plus, as is at least six runs ear­lier in the sea­son. VALE DORI has ev­ery chance of main­tain­ing the good re­cent record of older horses af­ter win­ning a Santa Anita Grade 1 last time. A slight worry is the fact that she’s had just five runs this sea­son but she comes from Breed­ers’ Cup king Bob Baf­fert. 8.56: Breed­ers’ Cup Turf

A run within the past eight weeks has been a must, although a win last time out has not been a pos­i­tive. Horses aged four and five have the best record, with a vic­tory at Grade 1 level im­por­tant. Euro­peantrained horses have a much bet­ter record than the

lo­cals. Favourites have a poor record too.

En­able looks hard to beat but there are a cou­ple of trends against her, namely the shock­ing record of favourites with only one win in 14 and her suc­cess last time out. Find­ing some­thing to beat her is not easy but WALDGEIST has stronger claims on trends. He ran well be­hind En­able in fourth in the Arc and has form on soft ground. 9.44 Breed­ers’ Cup Clas­sic

Fin­ish­ing in the first two last time is a big pointer, as is a vic­tory at Grade 1 level and a suc­cess over 1m1f or fur­ther.

Bob Baf­fert has trained three of the past four win­ners with only one of the past 10 win­ners hail­ing from out­side the USA.

This hasn’t been a race for long­shots with only one Clas­sic scorer go­ing off at a dou­ble-fig­ure price.

Given Baf­fert’s record, MCKINZIE has to be a ma­jor player. He won well in Grade 1 com­pany last time out over 1m1f and looks open to fur­ther im­prove­ment.

Soft ground form: Waldgeist can foil En­able bid

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