‘Health warning’ over cereal crop predictions

While the news might have been as welcome as yet another wet day for the many growers with grain still to cut, harvest estimates released yesterday by the Scottish Government have indicated that both national yields and production are up in Scotland this year.

However, farming organisations warned that, with many fields still lying uncut and many tonnes still to be dried, any harvest estimates should come with “a significant health warning” attached.

In what was admittedly billed as a first estimate – with an acceptance that drying costs cut into any good news and that the acres remaining to be cut could see the figures revised – the official stats pointed to the 2017 cereal harvest being up 12 per cent on 2016, almost fully recovering from last year’s poor results.

Despite less favourable conditions in the traditional harvest month of September, total production was put at 3.1 million tonnes, up around 330,000 on last year’s figure. The total barley harvest was estimated at 1.9 million tonnes while wheat accounted for a further one million tonnes.

Scotland’s chief statistician said that the expected

0 Many producers have harvested – but many have not increase was due mainly to an 11 per cent increase in yieldsacrossallofthemain combinable crops.

But while spring barley production was billed to have increased by 16 per cent to 1.5 million tonnes, this figure was still behind those produced between 2013 and 2015, despite what was predicted to be a record average yield of 6.2 tonnes per hectare.

Welcoming the figures despite the harvest weather, rural economy secretary Fergus Ewing said: “Despite some farmers continuing to struggle with the fifth wettest summer on record, I am pleased that early indications suggest Scottish cereal production may have increased 12 per cent to 3.1 million tonnes.”

He also welcomed the news that, with yields averaging more than four tonnes per hectare, the oilseed crop had seen a 24 per cent increase in yields and, together with increased planting had seen a 38 per cent increase in production.

NFU Scotland policy manager Peter Loggie said: “It is clear from ongoing reports around the country that, in many areas, significant amounts of cereals have still to be harvested, acres of straw lie unbaled in sodden fields and ploughing for winter sown crops is well behind.

“NFU Scotland’s own cereal survey showed that those crops successfully harvested this autumn have yielded well and recovered from the yield losses seen in 2016.

“But, for those crops still to be harvested, achieving marketable quantity and quality will be a real struggle.”