Hopes and fears over Brexit

It is always tempting to ride the wave of optimism that arrives with the New Year but, with the reality of Brexit edging closer, it may not be so easy for business leaders planning for 2018 to remain upbeat for long.

It’s perhaps surprising, then, that a number of businesses have adopted a stoic attitude to our separation from the EU.

While most admit to fears, they also express the view that abstract concepts such as business resilience and creativity allow them to face the changes ahead with a positive outlook.

Indeed, there is a strong belief in many quarters that this could be the catalyst for re-energising our manufacturing industries such as steel, technology and design.

Some, interviewed as part of our research project Brexit & Scottish Business, also express their hope that in the interests of business and the economy, immigration policy is developed to encourage growth.

It is an opportunity, they say, to grab control of immigration and implement a system that supports growth in the UK economy by letting industry access the skills it very much needs.

However, the level of confidence in the negotiations undertaken to date by the UK Government is low, with the lack of policy and strategy on offer from Whitehall having proved bewildering to many.

Even some pro-brexit leaders have expressed concern about the progress of negotiations.

And, despite the hope for resolution, little has been achieved that gives businesses confidence that their concerns about limitations on the free movement of people have been addressed.

Indeed, in interviews and in our survey, this has been expressed in different ways, from worry about being able to access the right labour at the right time in areas such as seasonal agricultural work to considerations over recruitment and retention at higher level skills.

For others, there are concerns about depopulation, reciprocal rights for EU nationals or the valuable cultural diversity that EU nationals have brought to their organisations.

So it’s fair to say that current uncertainties and complexities see hopes and fears riding side by side.

The concern must be for those allowing themselves to be buffeted around by the winds of uncertainty in the false hope of certainty coming along and the equally false hope of a return to a stability of the past.

Having interviewed about 200 business leaders, it’s become increasingly apparent that the emerging schism between those willing to prepare, plan and innovate on the one hand and those waiting on something to turn up is of most significance to the future of the Scottish economy. ● Michelle Thomson is founding director of Momentous Change, a consultancy to help organisations manage change and currently focused on Brexit and Scottish business