Former SNP minister says Brexit figures ‘very dubious’

A senior figure in the SNP has questioned Scottish Government analysis which found a so-called “no deal” Brexit would cost Scotland £12.7 billion a year by 2030, describing such forecasts as “very, very dubious”.

Former Scottish Government minister Alex Neil, who voted leave in the EU referendum, said there are “so many unknowns” surrounding the figures in the economic forecast paper, launched by Nicola Sturgeon on Monday.

The paper models three possible Brexit scenarios which the First Minister said were the “only realistic outcomes of Brexit” – staying in the single market and customs union, a preferential trade agreement or reverting to World Trade Organisation terms in a no-deal Brexit.

Researchers analysed the impact on GDP, trade and immigrationandfoundthe latter deal could cost everyone in Scotland £2,300 by 2030, a £12.7bn loss to the economy. Staying in the single market would cost around £4bn.

The First Minister said if the UK does leave the European Union then remaining in the European single market and the customs union is the “only option that makes sense”.

Mr Neil said: “I think until we see the shape of the deal, we don’t know what the assumptions are.”