Scottish food industry to be ‘devastated’ by hard Brexit
● Fish and meat products would face costly new tariffs under WTO rules ● Rural areas would be worst hit
Scotland’s flagship food industry is facing a “devastating” impact from a hard Brexit with the prospect of a 90 per cent fall in sales across mainland Europe under a “no deal” scenario.
Industry leaders say that costly tariffs imposed on their products would hammer the sector under a “no deal” Brexit scenario which would see exports between the EU and UK subject to World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules.
It comes amid growing concerns about the prospect of a free trade deal being struck after the UK leaves the EU, with influential Belgian MEP Guy Verhofstadt appearing to rule out a “bespoke” deal for the UK at the weekend, which the UK is seeking to negotiate.
Scotland’s food and drink industry is worth about £14.4 billion to the economy and now exceeds the oil and gas industry in the country’s growth. Whisky would escape tariffs, but food would be worst hit under a WTO scenario, according to research conducted by the Economic and Social Research Institute. More than 5,000 products classified by the WTO attract diverse tariffs. This includes almost 50 per cent for meat, and 34 per cent for processed meat and fish, as well as 9 per cent for fish and crustaceans.
The stark impact will be heard by MSPS at Holyrood this week when industry leaders give evidence on Brexit.
“This an alarming insight to what the inshore industry might face moving forward,” Alistair Sinclair of the Scottish Creel Fishermen’s Federation warns in a submission to the rural affairs committee.
“The impact on our inshore fleet [creelers and diver] could be catastrophic with rural communities suffering most. These are indeed very sobering results which would have devastating results on the food sector across Scotland.”
The research predicts that sales of fish would fall by about 40 per cent while processed meat and fish products would plunge by 90 per cent. About 70 per cent of Scottish exports go to Europe
James Withers, chief executive at Scotland Food & Drink said: “The prospect of the UK walking away from the EU without a trade deal is of real concern for food and drink businesses across Scotland. No deal is a bad deal for the Scottish food and drink sector.
“There is a real sense that the clock is now ticking. For our agricultural sectors, their growing season requires long term planning and the continued uncertainty around labour needs resolved quickly.”
“The impact on our inshore fleet could be catastrophic with rural communities suffering most”
ALISTAIR SINCLAIR
Scottish Creel Fishermen’s Federation
It might seem slightly odd to compare the views of Boris Johnson and those of the Scottish Creel Fishermen’s Federation. But, as far as Brexit is concerned, it is absolutely vital.
For his part, the Foreign Secretary believes Brexit can be a “manifestation of this country’s historic national genius” and is about “reengaging this country with its global identity and all the energy that can flow from that”. His speech last week – billed as offering solace to Remainers who fear the worst – turned out to be long on such rhetoric but short on detail. In contrast, the SCFF’S submission to the Scottish Parliament about the dangers of a no-deal Brexit is full of facts and figures, research by experts, the sort of stuff politicians in power are supposed to rely on to make sensible decisions. The no-deal Brexit is the scenario that we know most about as it involves existing World Trade Organisation rules.
There would be a 34 per cent tariff on processed meat and fish, for example, and the higher prices would result in an estimated 90 per cent fall in sales to EU. The figures gave an “alarming insight” into what the future would hold, the SCFF warns, saying it “could be catastrophic” for the inshore fleet. Strong words, but backed by evidence that’s fairly simple to understand. Brexiteers in the Conservative party have been demanding a bespoke trade deal with the EU that gives the UK virtually all benefits of membership, despite not abiding by the rules of the club. Mr Johnson has dubbed this the “have our cake and eat it” approach but it should really be called “pie in the sky”; the EU is never going to sign up to an agreement that makes it advantageous for its members to leave.
In insisting upon a deal that can never be done, the Brexiteers are pushing this country towards a nodeal Brexit. Theresa May appears to be searching for an agreement that retains enough “regulatory alignment” with the EU to allow reasonably frictionless trade and minimise the damage to the economy.
Staying in the Single Market in all but name would be the most effective way of doing this, but the few dozen Tory Brexiteers who regard this as turning the UK into an “EU colony” would almost certainly respond by bringing down her weak, minority government. If this happens and trade suffers as expected, voters should remember the warning from Scotland’s fishing industry, the politicians who took it seriously and those who did not.