SNP can’t just yell ‘Tories bad’ and expect a landslide
FOR the first time in a decade the SNP is not shaping political events in Scotland – it is being shaped by them. And so is Nicola Sturgeon’s fate. Theresa May’s decision to call a snap election shocked the First Minister, as it did most of us.
But the SNP’s ten years in power have been the result of meticulous planning – albeit allied to the Scottish Labour Party’s suicidal complacency.
Backbenchers are marionettes. Message discipline is iron. Nothing is unscripted.
Now Nicola Sturgeon is being asked to be spontaneous and it does not come easily. Take her response to the calling of the election. Days before she had suggested the Prime Minister should call one, claiming she did not have a mandate to govern.
When Theresa May did a volte face, so did Nicola Sturgeon.
It was then wrong to call an election, according to the First Minister. The Prime Minister was doing it for party advantage and to try to destroy Labour. In that endeavour, Ms Sturgeon and Mrs May are blood sisters.
A more confident First Minister, one who thought more thoroughly, would have had a different response.
SHE would have welcomed the move. Certain to win the most seats in Scotland – thanks to the ‘first past the post’ system she opposes – Ms Sturgeon could have said it would give her a mandate for a second independence referendum. Instead she claimed she already has one. If so, then what is the point of this General Election for the SNP?
There is another first for at least a decade in this election. The Tories are better prepared than anyone else.
They have done an awful lot of research in Scotland – thus the message, ‘Now is not the time’.
It is not meant for those who support the Union but works well with soft ‘yes’ voters – those people who, in principle, will vote for independence to prove their Scottishness but who pragmatically are quite relieved it did not happen in 2014.
They keep their identity warm by being Yessers – and hope their bank accounts are kept safe by their neighbours voting ‘no’. The SNP also ought to know the public mood. They did after all ‘consult’ the people of Scotland – at public expense – on their referendum Bill but have yet to reveal the results.
If they are as well researched then their tone suggests they did not like what the people of Scotland are thinking.
In the 2015 General Election, Ms Sturgeon appeared to be a breath of fresh air. Having stepped out from behind Alex Salmond’s bulky shadow, she seemed a new and confident woman. She based her campaign on a well thought through speech against austerity economics. She was warm. People were proud of her. Two years on and we are back to the shrill tone of the 1970s. With every sideways look and indignant nod of the head, she looks like a one-person Alex Salmond tribute act.
‘Tories bad’ seems to be her only message – despite the fact the SNP was effectively in coalition with them for four years from 2007.
Of course, when she says ‘Tory’ or indeed ‘Westminster’ that is not what she really means. When John Reid was Northern Ireland Secretary, the late Dr Ian Paisley used to refer to him as the ‘Celtic-supporting Secretary of State’. What he meant was Roman Catholic. When the SNP say ‘Tory’ or ‘Westminster’, they mean ‘English’. That suggests they are going for a core vote strategy, not trying to attract converts but shoring up what they have. The SNP are more deeply on the defensive than people think.
Their problem is not how people voted in the 2014 independence referendum but how they cast their votes in Brexit. Some 38 per cent of Scots voted Leave. Almost half of Angus Robertson’s constituents in Moray voted for it. More than half in Eilidh Whiteford’s Banff and Buchan constituency did so.
WHAT of the third of Yes voters who backed Brexit? They are less than impressed with the idea a separate Scotland would be run from Brussels. They might stay home on June 8 rather than vote for something they do not believe in. That could shrink many a Nat majority.
We know the SNP will say this election is not about Indyref 2, and with similar zeal will claim it has given them a mandate to hold one the day afterwards.
But they have another difficulty. If making Scotland ‘Toryfree’ is the aim, the Labour Party managed to achieve it in 1997. Ms Sturgeon appears to be the catalyst for a Tory revival.
There is little doubt the SNP will win the majority of seats in Scotland – but not the vote.
If their share goes below the near 45 per cent they won in the 2014 referendum then it will be difficult to argue Scotland wants another one.
Ms Sturgeon does not appear to know what this General Election is about for her cause.
On June 9 most of the map of Scotland will be yellow. But if the Tories have made inroads then those demanding Indyref 2 might go yellow as well. Then Ms Sturgeon’s future will be painted in much darker colours.