‘Global population set to peak before shrinking’

THE global population may peak at around 9.7 billion in 2064 before falling to 8.8 billion by the end of the century, a new study suggests.

Researchers at the University of Washington have based their forecast on a falling overall fertility rate, which is the average number of children a woman gives birth to, as girls get better access to education and contraception.

The projected fertility rate indicates that by 2100, 183 of 195 countries will not be able to maintain current populations, with forecasts indicating 2.1 births per woman.

Some 23 countries, including Japan, Thailand, Italy and Spain, will see populations plummet by more than 50% by the end of the century, according to the researchers.

But the population of sub-Saharan Africa could triple from an estimated 1.03 billion in 2017 to 3.07 billion, due to a declining death rate and more women entering reproductive age.

Scientists from the Institute for

Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the university’s School of Medicine used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

The modelling study, published in The Lancet, also predicts a shift in global economic power brought on by “dramatic declines in workingage populations in countries such as India and China”.

Aside from North Africa, the Middle East is the only other region predicted to have a larger population in 2100, growing from an estimated 600 million in 2017 to 978 million.

The fastest-shrinking populations will be in Asia and central and eastern Europe, the researchers said.

The population of Japan is predicted to shrink from around 128 million in 2017 to 60 million in 2100, Thailand will see a decline from 71 to 35 million, and South Korea from 53 to 27 million.

The population of Spain is forecast to fall from 46 to 23 million, Italy from 61 to 31 million and Portugal from 11 to 5 million.