York­shire prop­erty mar­ket ex­perts re­veal their pre­dic­tions for 2017

What will hap­pen to the York­shire prop­erty mar­ket in 2017? We asked 12 ex­perts for their pre­dic­tions, points of view and pos­si­ble hotspots. Sharon Dale re­ports.

Yorkshire Post - Property - - PROPERTY -

Andrew Bead­nall, founder of Bead­nall Co­p­ley es­tate agency.

“MOST FORE­CAST­ERS seem to agree that house prices are, at best, set to rise by two per cent in 2017. This pos­i­tive out­look is one I would plump for as the wor­ry­ingly low sup­ply of new in­struc­tions com­ing to the mar­ket should help sus­tain house price growth in the new year, al­beit it at a low level.

“There is no doubt that 2017 will be a year of un­cer­tainty for a num­ber of rea­sons, pri­mar­ily due to Ar­ti­cle 50 be­ing in­voked but also, in­creas­ingly, stretched buyer af­ford­abil­ity. The av­er­age prop­erty usu­ally costs around four times av­er­age in­come but has now in­creased to 6.5 times in­come.

“How­ever, while mort­gage rates re­main at his­toric low lev­els, house pur­chase re­mains sus­tain­able. With buy­ers’ bud­gets be­com­ing in­creas­ingly re­stricted due to ex­pected low wage in­creases and an an­tic­i­pated rise in in­fla­tion, we will see over-priced prop­er­ties at­tract­ing lit­tle in­ter­est and those sell­ing should re­main re­al­is­tic. Of all my 44 January’s as an es­tate agent I feel this will be the most cru­cial. If you are sell­ing in 2017 my strong ad­vice is to launch your prop­erty for sale im­me­di­ately to ensure you have a good few months of mar­ket­ing un­der your belt be­fore the chal­lenges of Brexit un­fold.”

Mark Man­ning, di­rec­tor, Man­ning Stain­ton es­tate agency.

“THE LAST year may well be de­fined as a land­mark year for the hous­ing mar­ket­ing and in­deed the wider econ­omy. Of course, Brexit and an im­mi­nent Trump pres­i­dency are stand-out events but the im­pact these have on our lo­cal hous­ing mar­ket are still yet to be seen. Add into this the in­tro­duc­tion of an ad­di­tional stamp duty for ex­tra homes, changes to tax re­lief on buyto-let mort­gage in­ter­est and a pro­posed ban on ten­ant fees and it’s cer­tainly been a head­line-grab­bing twelve months.

“How­ever, the mar­ket has re­mained de­fi­ant, of­fer­ing strong growth in prices and a con­sis­tent vol­ume of trans­ac­tions. Across the mar­kets we cover, which in­clude Leeds, Wake­field, Wetherby and Har­ro­gate, we have seen our av­er­age sale price in­crease by 9.4 per cent over the last year with a short­age of sup­ply en­sur­ing prices re­main res­o­lute.

“This short­age of sup­ply com­bined with at­trac­tive mort­gage rates that will con­tinue to de­fine the mar­ket into next year. Some com­men­ta­tors are pre­dict­ing a rough ride, a mar­ket likely to fall but, un­til the sup­ply and de­mand im­bal­ance is ad­dressed, price growth will re­main a key fea­ture par­tic­u­larly in the best ar­eas with good school­ing. The mar­ket next year may lack some of the furore of 2016 but we ex­pect prices to in­crease four to five per cent.”

Ed­ward Hartshorne, of Blenkin and Co, es­tate agency, York.

“BRI­TAIN SHOULD fin­ish 2016 as the fastest grow­ing econ­omy of seven lead­ing na­tions, largely be­cause of the thriv­ing ser­vice sec­tor of which es­tate agency is a part.

“The op­ti­mism for UK growth is un­doubt­edly rub­bing off on the res­i­den­tial es­tate agency mar­ket, known for its sen­si­tiv­ity to re­as­sur­ances from Her Majesty’s Trea­sury and the Bank of Eng­land. We had the most suc­cess­ful sec­ond half year in nearly ten years with good sales at all lev­els, coun­try and city, from £300,000 to £3m. These very buoy­ant fig­ures re­flect the wider pros­per­ity of the econ­omy in York and North York­shire. Travel 45 miles south­west of York and the pic­ture is very dif­fer­ent. So, like the polls, all fig­ures and fore­casts must be un­der­stood in this con­text.

“Based on our own cal­cu­la­tions, and tak­ing into ac­count lo­cal eco­nomic in­di­ca­tors and the wider tur­bu­lent po­lit­i­cal land­scape, we would pre­dict a busy start to 2017 fu­elled by a mod­est but sig­nif­i­cant sur­plus of buy­ers to prop­erty con­sid­ered both de­sir­able and fairly priced. Fur­ther ahead we fear to tread – the only sen­si­ble ad­vice would be to ‘make hay while the sun shines’ and right now in York it does.”

Patrick McCutcheon, Head of Res­i­den­tial Sales at Dacre, Son & Hart­ley.

“WE HAVE had a strong fin­ish to 2016 in York­shire, a con­clu­sion which has con­founded the doom-mon­gers who sur­faced the morn­ing af­ter the Brexit re­sult, and which com­bines with a strong spring to neatly bracket a more sub­dued sum­mer pe­riod.

“Avail­able prop­erty stock is around 80 per cent of the January 2014 fig­ure, yet buyer de­mand re­mains con­sis­tently strong, es­pe­cially in the core fam­ily hous­ing sec­tor. This im­bal­ance in the sup­ply side is likely to ensure prices re­main ro­bust in the new year and strong in the face of the neg­a­tiv­ity we are likely to ex­pe­ri­ence once Ar­ti­cle 50 is served.”

Jonathan Mor­gan, man­ag­ing di­rec­tor of Mor­gans, Leeds.

“WE ARE ex­pect­ing big things in the city cen­tre mar­ket next year. Af­ter a num­ber of quiet years, dur­ing which de­mand has re­mained very high whilst new sup­ply has plum­meted, we are fi­nally go­ing to see some new de­vel­op­ments tak­ing off. Since the down­turn of 2007, the im­pact of which was felt for five or six years, we have be­come ac­cus­tomed to liv­ing off scraps of new ac­tiv­ity but that is about to change.

“A wave of small new de­vel­op­ments will add in­ter­est and vi­tal­ity to the mar­ket. It is es­sen­tial that the in­ces­sant stream of in­ward re-lo­ca­tors, drawn to Leeds by op­por­tu­nity and prospects, are able to se­cure good qual­ity rental ac­com­mo­da­tion close to where they work.

“It is in­evitable that there will be fur­ther growth in both sales and ren­tals val­ues in Leeds city cen­tre next year, as we con­tinue to catch up with our peer cities such as York, Manch­ester, Liver­pool and Birm­ing­ham and as we get more and more com­fort­able with the fact that Leeds is fast be­com­ing a city of great mean­ing and sig­nif­i­cance.

“We are look­ing for­ward to work­ing on a num­ber of very ex­cit­ing new de­vel­op­ments in­clud­ing Vic­to­ria House, Iron Works, Kirk­stall Forge, Tower Works and 53 The Calls, which will pro­vide the next tranche of much-needed hous­ing and have very high hopes for Head­in­g­ley which is show­ing strong signs of a re­turn to its glo­ri­ous past when it was the sub­urb of choice for as­pi­ra­tional house­hold­ers.”

Justin Dug­dale, York­shire’s Finest es­tate agency, Denby Dale.

“THE YORK­SHIRE prop­erty mar­ket in 2016 has been some­what un­con­ven­tional. The tra­di­tional sea­sonal peaks and troughs were not as ev­i­dent and we had Brexit to deal with.

“Ini­tially, the out­come of the ref­er­en­dum seemed to give a boost to the mar­ket with July, Au­gust and Septem­ber see­ing ex­cep­tional sales ac­tiv­ity. The last quarter of 2016 has not been as vi­brant. I an­tic­i­pate fur­ther price rises through­out next year with a likely min­i­mum of five per cent and a max­i­mum of 10 per cent which, with in­fla­tion be­ing as low as it is, rep­re­sents healthy growth in the value of bricks and mor­tar. A par­tic­u­lar hot spot where I en­vis­age prices ris­ing nearer the 10 per cent mark is within the golden tri­an­gle of vil­lages be­tween Holm­firth, Wake­field and Barns­ley with stun­ning ru­ral idylls like Cawthorne, Holm­firth, She­p­ley, Up­per Denby, Woo­ley, Thurston­land and Farn­ley Tyas.”

Ben Prid­den, head of res­i­den­tial at Sav­ills York.

“THIS HAS been a record year for Sav­ills York. There is no doubt that the res­i­den­tial prop­erty mar­ket slowed down slightly dur­ing the pe­riod run­ning up to the ref­er­en­dum, how­ever things have cer­tainly picked up since.

“Fore­cast­ing in the af­ter­math of the Brexit vote is dif­fi­cult but our re­searchers be­lieve that its im­pact on the prop­erty mar­ket is con­sid­er­ably less than that of the credit crunch.

“We ex­pect prime ur­ban mar­kets such as York to con­tinue out­per­form­ing their neigh­bour­ing vil­lages and ru­ral ar­eas as the trend for ur­ban liv­ing re­mains pop­u­lar.

“How­ever, vil­lages and ru­ral ar­eas now rep­re­sent good value in com­par­i­son to larger towns and this will make them a very at­trac­tive prospect to some buy­ers.

“We have al­ready seen a sig­nif­i­cant in­crease in ac­tiv­ity this year in vil­lages to the north of York.

“In York city, we have seen an in­crease of 3.7 per cent in prime prop­erty val­ues in 2016 along­side a 2.1 per cent in­crease in sur­round­ing vil­lages. I be­lieve that prime val­ues across the north of Eng­land will grow by an av­er­age of 14 per cent over the five years to 2021.”

Tony Wright, Head of Res­i­den­tial, Carter Jonas Har­ro­gate.

“DE­SPITE BREXIT and Trump, we have seen the mar­ket place per­form pretty much to our ex­pec­ta­tions in 2016. Hotspots be­ing York, Har­ro­gate and North Leeds. In ad­di­tion, our New Homes di­vi­sion has en­joyed sig­nif­i­cant suc­cess with newly­built/con­verted prop­er­ties fly­ing off the shelves. For 2017, the only cer­tainty is that nothing is cer­tain. The trig­ger­ing of Ar­ti­cle 50 is likely to cause some dis­rup­tion. How­ever, if our ex­pe­ri­ence of Brexit is any­thing to go by, I see this as a short-term is­sue.

“The ar­eas in which we op­er­ate re­main par­tic­u­larly pop­u­lar and with the lack of prop­erty com­ing to the mar­ket in the lat­ter part of 2016, there is the prospect of strong pentup de­mand in the new year which bodes well for those con­tem­plat­ing a sale. My ad­vice for sell­ers is to go to the mar­ket early in 2017 and reap the ben­e­fit of what I pre­dict will be an ac­tive mar­ket place in ad­vance of the Brexit storm clouds gath­er­ing.”

Gly­nis Frew, Man­ag­ing Di­rec­tor, Hun­ters Prop­erty Plc.

“2016 HAS cer­tainly been an event­ful year. How­ever. what­ever is hap­pen­ing po­lit­i­cally, life never stops mov­ing and peo­ple still need to move for jobs, to up­size, down­size, to get mar­ried, di­vorced, start a fam­ily and so on. This year has seen price rises be­tween three and five per cent and the mar­ket has been short of good houses. We wel­come the gov­ern­ment’s as­sur­ance to build new homes in 2017; more stock, if priced cor­rectly, will un­doubt­edly sta­bilise mar­kets.

“We fore­see hotspots for York­shire next year to be driven around life­style with el­e­ments such as em­ploy­ment, road and rail net­works, health fa­cil­i­ties and schools be­ing very im­por­tant, as al­ways.

“How­ever, these days, good in­ter­net con­nec­tion and phone re­cep­tion are in­creas­ingly on a buyer’s check­list. I see peo­ple grav­i­tat­ing more to­wards towns and cities for this rea­son with places like Har­ro­gate, York, Leeds and Sh­effield re­main­ing pop­u­lar.”

Martin El­lis, Hal­i­fax econ­o­mist.

“HOUSE PRICES in the re­gion have risen at a pace slightly below the na­tional av­er­age over the past two to three years as con­di­tions have been more buoy­ant in Lon­don and the South East. The prospect of a slow­down in UK eco­nomic growth in

2017, ac­com­pa­nied by higher in­fla­tion, which will squeeze house­hold fi­nances, is likely to curb hous­ing de­mand; fac­tors that are also ex­pected to dampen the mar­ket in York­shire.

“While house prices in York­shire have risen more rapidly than earn­ings in the last few years, the ra­tio of prices to earn­ings re­mains com­fort­ably below its 2007 peak. In ad­di­tion, the low level of mort­gage rates means that monthly pay­ments con­tinue to take up a lower than av­er­age pro­por­tion of bor­row­ers’ in­comes.

“This should all sup­port prices across the re­gion. Over­all, prices in York­shire are pre­dicted to rise by a mod­est amount next year with the re­gion likely to out­per­form the na­tional av­er­age as south­ern Eng­land bears the brunt of the ex­pected slow­down in price growth.”

Ni­cola Spencer, Spencers es­tate agents, Sh­effield,

“THIS YEAR has been busy de­spite the Brexit, the Amer­i­can elec­tions and changes in stamp duty. As for 2017, it’s al­ways been ac­cepted that the mar­ket in south-west Sh­effield rarely fol­lows down­wards trends, thanks to fab­u­lous schools, beau­ti­ful green spa­ces and some amaz­ing restau­rants and bars but, with talk of ris­ing in­ter­est rates, it may be that we see some ner­vous un­cer­tainty from movers,

“Lev­els of sup­ply are cur­rently in­cred­i­bly low and if the high lev­els of de­mand are main­tained within prime ar­eas, as they have been through­out 2016, I can only see that sen­si­bly-priced prop­er­ties will con­tinue to go to best and fi­nal of­fers and achieve above the ask­ing price. If this is the case then we would hope to see a strong first half of the year.

“Prop­erty will con­tinue to be a safe bet when it comes to in­vest­ing money. Where else would you put your cash right now?

“Un­for­tu­nately, the changes in stamp duty for sec­ond homes this year have pun­ished those want­ing to in­vest in prop­erty for the long-term. Con­trary to pop­u­lar opin­ion, they aren’t all fat cat land­lords with large port­fo­lios, many are sin­gle prop­erty own­ers who want to in­vest in bricks and mor­tar for their chil­dren or in­stead of a pen­sion fund.

“Through­out 2017 we hope to see a con­tin­u­a­tion in sales through­out all price brack­ets and pray for an in­crease in stock lev­els. As for prices, I think they be static next year if sup­ply of homes for sale doesn’t in­crease. The strength in prices at the mo­ment lies in the min­i­mal amount of prop­erty on the mar­ket.”

Richard Welp­ton, of Quick and Clarke es­tate agents, East York­shire,

“I THINK ev­ery­one is well aware of the gen­eral short­age of sup­ply of houses on the mar­ket and that is­sue ex­tends to our area. It is most cer­tainly caus­ing prices to rise in the lower and the mid­dle mar­ket, which is any­thing up to £400,000.

“The rate of in­crease in this sec­tor is be­ing fur­ther am­pli­fied by some es­tate agents pro­vid­ing higher, and in some cases un­re­al­is­ti­cally high, mar­ket val­u­a­tions in a bid to win more in­struc­tions. Un­for­tu­nately, the mar­ket above the £400,000 mark is still tough with pos­si­bly too much choice for buy­ers and a high level of un­cer­tainty, pos­si­bly caused by hype about the po­ten­tial ef­fects of Brexit.

“In terms of hotspots, Bev­er­ley re­mains a very strong mar­ket, par­tic­u­larly with first-time buy­ers, fam­i­lies and down­siz­ers. I can­not see this mar­ket slow­ing down into 2017.

“The big­gest news will be around the Hull mar­ket and the en­ergy cre­ated around the City of Cul­ture 2017. The ex­cite­ment is re­ally build­ing and the amount of in­vest­ment in the city has been as­tound­ing. Siemens is ma­jor partner in the City of Cul­ture and most other lo­cal busi­nesses are get­ting on board. I am cer­tain this is go­ing to have a pos­i­tive ef­fect on the Hull hous­ing mar­ket.

“Hope­fully, with the spot­light on the city, which has been much-ma­ligned for years, I think that West York­shire and York buy­ers will con­sider look­ing fur­ther East to the West Hull and York­shire Wolds vil­lages where they will find some real bar­gains.

“The mar­ket town of Driffield is also hav­ing a real re­nais­sance and at­tract­ing more York com­muters. Cheaper prop­er­ties, good ameni­ties, a lo­cal mar­ket town feel and prox­im­ity to the coast, are prov­ing to be more at­trac­tive as the vil­lages and towns closer to York, such as Pock­ling­ton and Stam­ford Bridge, be­come more ex­pen­sive.

“In terms of our own busi­ness, there are too few prop­er­ties and too many es­tate agents – 12 in Bev­er­ley alone. So 2017 will be a very test­ing mar­ket for our sec­tor.”

Newspapers in English

Newspapers from UK

© PressReader. All rights reserved.