PoliTiFacT: Im­mi­gra­tion cre­ates un­cer­tainty

Austin American-Statesman - - METRO & STATE -

Con­tin­ued from B1 pro­jec­tions sug­gest var­i­ous timeta­bles for the state’s Lati­nos to out­num­ber its An­g­los.

Ac­cord­ing to the data cen­ter, it “is an­tic­i­pated that the num­ber of His­pan­ics will ex­ceed the num­ber of An­g­los in the state at some point in the com­ing decade. This bench­mark might be achieved a lit­tle sooner or a lit­tle later if mi­gra­tion is re­spec­tively more rapid or more slow than that uti­lized for this pro­jec­tion.”

King’s fore­cast could prove cor­rect “as­sum­ing most of our mi­gra­tion, fer­til­ity and mor­tal­ity as­sump­tions hold true,” Pot­ter said in an e-mail. “The only con­cern I have is (King’s) state­ment in­di­cat­ing such cer­tainty.”

His e-mail con­tin­ues: “The vari­able with the most un­cer­tainty is mi­gra­tion. Un­der our most con­ser­va­tive mi­gra­tion sce­nario, we project this thresh­old will oc­cur at about 2020 give or take a year. Un­der the most ag­gres­sive sce­nario, the thresh­old would oc­cur around 2014 or 2015. Un­der the ‘un­likely’ no-mi­gra­tion sce­nario, it won’t oc­cur un­til al­most 2035.”

As­sum­ing con­ser­va­tive mi­gra­tion num­bers, the data cen­ter projects a pop­u­la­tion of 28 mil­lion by 2020, in­clud­ing more than 11.8 mil­lion His­pan­ics and slightly fewer An­g­los.

The trend has been seen in cen­sus num­bers. In the 2000 Cen­sus, 52 per­cent of Tex­ans were An­glo, and 32 per­cent iden­ti­fied them­selves as His­panic or Latino (of any race). By 2008, ac­cord­ing to the Cen­sus Bureau, Texas’ His­panic pro­por­tion had grown to 37 per­cent, and its An­glo pro­por­tion had shrunk to 47 per­cent.

Pot­ter said the eth­nic­ity pro­jec­tions could change. “If the bor­ders closed to in­ter­na­tional mi­gra­tion, that would slow it con­sid­er­ably. If Texas’ econ­omy slumped, that would slow the trend. When look­ing into the pro­jec­tions crys­tal ball, keep­ing these lim­i­ta­tions of un­cer­tainty in mind is healthy.”

Still, King’s pre­dic­tion — a ma­jor­ity His­panic pop­u­la­tion within five to 10 years — has enough wig­gle room to fit all the data cen­ter’s mi­gra­tion fore­casts, ex­cept the no-mi­gra­tion sce­nario.

We rate King’s state­ment True.

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